* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEBASTIEN AL202019 11/24/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 53 51 48 37 27 45 43 41 38 35 30 24 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 54 53 51 48 37 27 45 43 41 38 35 30 24 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 54 52 49 46 40 41 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 37 39 43 49 47 33 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -2 -1 -3 9 17 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 228 223 213 213 221 234 246 261 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.2 21.6 21.0 19.9 19.2 16.4 13.8 11.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 93 91 89 85 84 78 74 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 88 85 84 81 79 75 71 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -55.7 -55.9 -55.6 -55.2 -53.8 -52.7 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.8 4.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 44 42 41 38 51 55 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 17 15 13 9 9 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -33 -36 -34 -27 69 180 252 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 71 48 49 33 27 32 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -57 -75 -34 -90 -87 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1639 1606 1619 1725 1872 1217 716 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.5 35.1 36.7 38.3 39.8 43.2 46.9 50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.5 41.7 38.9 35.4 32.0 24.1 16.5 8.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 27 28 30 31 32 34 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 26 CX,CY: 17/ 20 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. -23. -25. -28. -29. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -13. -16. -21. -25. -29. -34. -38. -44. -47. -50. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 11. 13. 16. 17. 17. 17. 17. 15. 10. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -3. -8. -10. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -7. -18. -28. -10. -12. -14. -17. -20. -25. -31. -37. -43. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 33.5 44.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/24/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 47.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.01 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.70 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 304.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.61 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 95.1 104.5 to 0.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/24/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/24/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 53 51 48 37 27 45 43 41 38 35 30 24 18 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 53 51 48 37 27 45 43 41 38 35 30 24 18 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 49 46 35 25 43 41 39 36 33 28 22 16 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 42 31 21 39 37 35 32 29 24 18 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT