* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEBASTIEN AL202019 11/21/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 56 53 49 46 45 43 40 37 35 33 32 30 29 23 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 56 53 49 46 45 43 40 37 35 33 32 30 29 23 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 54 54 52 46 39 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 19 23 36 45 48 54 39 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 8 9 7 0 -1 -6 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 237 230 221 223 232 236 243 254 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.6 26.6 26.1 25.2 23.1 21.5 19.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 134 123 119 112 98 90 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 126 125 116 112 106 92 84 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.8 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -53.6 -54.0 -55.7 -57.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.8 0.4 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 40 35 31 30 29 23 19 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 21 19 19 19 19 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 22 41 49 44 41 0 -95 -82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 118 119 112 78 25 -15 -5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 12 22 21 13 -37 -10 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 670 813 956 1164 1372 1889 1641 1572 1676 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.6 24.5 25.7 26.9 29.6 32.8 35.8 38.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.3 60.3 59.3 57.7 56.1 51.8 46.6 41.1 35.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 16 19 21 25 27 27 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 23 22 4 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -13. -19. -24. -29. -34. -37. -40. -44. -46. -49. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. -0. -1. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 3. -1. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -18. -20. -21. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 22.7 61.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/21/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 43.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.05 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.38 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.59 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 373.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.54 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.81 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 10.6% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 3.8% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/21/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/21/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 54 56 53 49 46 45 43 40 37 35 33 32 30 29 23 18HR AGO 50 49 51 53 50 46 43 42 40 37 34 32 30 29 27 26 20 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 45 41 38 37 35 32 29 27 25 24 22 21 15 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 37 33 30 29 27 24 21 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT