* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PABLO AL182019 10/27/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 64 65 65 61 59 57 57 55 52 49 48 45 42 38 36 V (KT) LAND 60 62 64 65 65 61 59 57 57 55 52 49 48 45 42 38 36 V (KT) LGEM 60 61 60 58 55 51 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 18 24 23 29 38 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 -1 0 0 -2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 230 235 263 272 265 265 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 19.1 17.7 17.3 16.4 15.4 14.9 13.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 81 75 73 70 68 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 75 70 68 65 64 63 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.8 -59.4 -60.3 -60.4 -60.3 -60.6 -58.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 0.0 -0.5 -0.3 0.4 -0.1 1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 53 53 51 49 53 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 22 22 21 16 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 135 118 105 76 64 97 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 57 32 10 -13 17 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 24 47 56 37 24 51 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 805 726 695 746 792 777 774 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 41.9 43.5 45.1 46.0 46.8 47.9 49.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 18.8 18.0 17.3 17.5 17.8 19.0 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 24 17 13 9 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 31 CX,CY: 18/ 25 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 474 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -18. -23. -28. -32. -35. -39. -42. -45. -47. -48. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -12. -13. -16. -19. -23. -28. -30. -32. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 9. 12. 16. 21. 25. 31. 36. 39. 41. 43. 45. 44. 40. 37. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -15. -18. -22. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 41.9 18.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182019 PABLO 10/27/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.34 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.27 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 249.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 104.5 to 0.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182019 PABLO 10/27/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 62 64 65 65 61 59 57 57 55 52 49 48 45 42 38 36 18HR AGO 60 59 61 62 62 58 56 54 54 52 49 46 45 42 39 35 33 12HR AGO 60 57 56 57 57 53 51 49 49 47 44 41 40 37 34 30 28 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 50 46 44 42 42 40 37 34 33 30 27 23 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT