* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PABLO AL182019 10/26/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 47 49 52 53 53 48 45 42 37 34 30 26 20 16 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 47 49 52 53 53 48 45 42 37 34 30 26 20 16 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 45 46 48 49 49 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 34 40 41 38 31 35 29 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -6 -5 0 0 -3 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 230 231 226 225 244 254 254 278 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.6 22.6 22.9 21.8 21.4 19.3 17.3 16.5 15.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 89 90 93 88 87 79 73 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 79 80 82 80 79 73 67 65 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.5 -55.2 -55.9 -56.7 -59.6 -61.0 -60.7 -61.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 3.2 2.9 2.1 1.8 1.8 0.4 -0.6 0.4 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 46 44 45 48 53 52 53 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 19 18 18 19 19 18 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 181 157 149 135 141 125 103 66 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 50 41 24 54 45 33 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -18 -17 -21 -18 11 52 55 33 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1969 1856 1744 1591 1420 1144 989 951 853 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.6 35.8 35.9 37.0 38.1 41.3 43.8 45.6 47.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 31.8 30.3 28.9 27.2 25.5 22.8 21.3 20.5 19.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 14 17 18 17 11 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 8 CX,CY: 7/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 746 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -7. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -3. -9. -16. -21. -27. -32. -37. -45. -49. -51. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 16. 20. 26. 30. 33. 34. 36. 37. 35. 30. 27. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 13. 13. 8. 5. 2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -20. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 35.6 31.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182019 PABLO 10/26/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 42.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.08 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.11 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 166.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 104.5 to 0.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182019 PABLO 10/26/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 45 47 49 52 53 53 48 45 42 37 34 30 26 20 16 18HR AGO 40 39 41 43 45 48 49 49 44 41 38 33 30 26 22 16 DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 40 43 44 44 39 36 33 28 25 21 17 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 35 36 36 31 28 25 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT