* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OCTAVE EP182019 10/19/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 22 21 20 18 17 19 21 22 22 24 25 26 27 27 V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 22 21 20 18 17 19 21 22 22 24 25 26 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 21 19 18 17 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 19 19 18 17 16 15 17 11 12 14 13 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -5 -7 -5 0 3 1 0 1 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 133 132 129 116 105 94 83 98 113 95 83 91 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 134 135 135 134 134 135 137 137 137 138 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 35 33 31 31 34 39 43 42 42 35 33 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -8 -2 4 2 7 3 0 -17 -10 -5 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -13 -3 -6 -22 -36 -53 -56 -19 6 11 -5 1 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2045 2042 2039 2048 2057 2074 2074 2041 1985 1929 1874 1846 1809 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.6 11.5 11.4 11.2 11.0 11.0 11.3 11.8 12.3 12.6 12.6 12.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.8 125.7 125.6 125.6 125.5 125.5 125.5 125.4 125.2 125.0 124.6 124.2 123.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 2 2 0 1 2 3 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 8 8 9 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 29. 30. 30. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. 9. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -0. -0. -2. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -6. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.6 125.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182019 OCTAVE 10/19/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.69 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.40 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.09 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 198.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.69 -3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 37.8 to 2.1 1.00 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.60 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.5% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 6.0% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182019 OCTAVE 10/19/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##