* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NESTOR AL162019 10/19/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 40 38 36 32 28 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 38 34 31 29 30 27 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 42 34 31 29 31 27 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 33 32 35 40 42 51 55 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 5 7 7 5 3 4 0 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 290 297 293 288 295 295 293 299 319 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.2 27.1 25.7 24.3 21.7 26.4 25.5 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 129 128 114 103 88 120 111 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 130 117 116 103 93 81 104 95 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.9 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 52 56 59 59 55 46 35 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 18 16 16 16 19 17 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -18 -6 -27 -31 -21 -38 -38 -66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 29 46 40 4 4 -37 -58 -91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 40 39 56 70 66 42 34 28 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 161 -20 -122 -82 -59 15 352 536 616 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.7 29.9 31.1 32.3 33.4 35.3 36.5 37.0 37.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.5 85.1 83.7 81.9 80.2 76.0 71.9 68.5 65.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 18 19 19 18 16 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 11 1 0 0 0 5 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 18 CX,CY: 14/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -9. -18. -29. -35. -42. -48. -52. -59. -64. -67. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -5. -15. -16. -18. -19. -19. -19. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -9. -13. -17. -28. -45. -51. -57. -61. -65. -70. -73. -74. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 28.7 86.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162019 NESTOR 10/19/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 51.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 195.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 71.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162019 NESTOR 10/19/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162019 NESTOR 10/19/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 38 34 31 29 30 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 40 37 35 36 33 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 38 36 37 34 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 34 31 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT