* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN AL162019 10/17/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 40 43 47 47 42 38 31 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 40 43 47 35 29 31 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 40 39 30 28 30 26 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 20 26 29 27 38 36 33 33 49 49 54 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 11 7 6 8 12 7 5 7 6 0 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 254 276 279 277 280 282 287 291 293 295 305 303 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.3 28.1 27.4 24.9 22.3 26.1 25.8 25.6 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 165 166 165 160 141 132 107 91 116 112 109 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 153 156 158 158 151 130 120 97 82 99 94 90 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.8 -54.8 -55.2 -55.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 67 66 61 53 45 54 53 49 41 35 36 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 14 14 18 20 20 16 16 16 15 11 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 17 7 -6 10 -15 12 -12 -6 -17 -31 -56 -35 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 118 77 48 36 70 39 53 6 1 -43 -65 -70 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -3 17 19 22 50 44 63 43 36 19 26 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 216 363 441 400 257 118 -163 -81 0 309 463 498 543 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.5 24.4 25.6 26.8 29.3 31.5 33.8 35.5 36.6 37.2 37.5 37.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.4 94.3 93.1 91.6 90.1 87.0 83.7 79.9 76.0 72.4 69.8 67.9 66.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 14 16 18 18 18 19 19 17 13 9 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 74 65 80 75 75 15 2 0 0 5 1 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 749 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 13. 16. 18. 20. 20. 20. 20. 20. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -8. -13. -21. -29. -36. -44. -50. -55. -57. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 7. 4. 3. 2. -0. -6. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 8. 12. 12. 7. 3. -4. -12. -22. -32. -35. -37. -37. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.6 95.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162019 SIXTEEN 10/17/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 40.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.13 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 73.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.46 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.82 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.46 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 118.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.80 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.91 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 14.3% 9.4% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 5.4% 4.1% 2.8% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 6.6% 4.5% 3.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162019 SIXTEEN 10/17/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162019 SIXTEEN 10/17/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 40 43 47 35 29 31 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 36 37 40 44 32 26 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 35 39 27 21 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 32 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT