* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN AL152019 10/16/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 28 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 28 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 26 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 20 25 31 40 49 54 41 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 0 -2 1 -1 -5 -5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 220 225 226 225 229 234 235 235 257 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.2 25.9 26.0 26.0 25.9 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 120 119 115 112 114 114 113 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 112 111 110 106 104 105 105 103 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.9 -55.3 -55.9 -56.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 48 47 43 41 36 33 33 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 11 9 7 4 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 22 21 24 34 9 1 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 42 47 31 21 33 13 12 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 11 16 10 10 18 20 11 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 662 739 818 902 948 1088 1275 1473 1676 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.2 17.8 18.4 18.9 20.0 21.2 22.1 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 23.4 23.9 24.5 25.1 25.8 27.4 29.3 31.2 33.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 3 2 0 0 2 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 767 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. 19. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -7. -16. -23. -31. -38. -41. -43. -47. -49. -51. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. -19. -19. -19. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -17. -22. -27. -31. -33. -35. -35. -35. -35. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.6 23.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152019 FIFTEEN 10/16/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.20 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.45 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.19 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 232.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 58.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.44 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 7.5% 5.4% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 2.6% 1.9% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152019 FIFTEEN 10/16/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 29 28 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 29 28 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT