* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 10/02/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 61 53 46 41 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 61 53 46 41 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 62 54 48 43 33 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 42 49 50 57 41 34 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 12 7 7 3 8 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 188 206 210 219 231 298 200 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 20.0 18.0 16.5 15.7 14.7 14.9 14.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 87 81 77 75 72 70 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 82 77 74 72 69 66 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.5 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -55.0 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.1 1.3 2.7 3.1 1.4 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 35 35 41 44 46 47 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 44 40 41 40 39 30 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 76 78 97 107 70 205 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 91 67 72 80 50 -32 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -41 6 -4 -2 10 14 -111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1536 1258 876 569 294 21 933 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 43.0 45.6 48.2 50.1 52.0 53.1 52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 28.0 24.5 21.0 17.8 14.6 9.4 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 35 36 32 28 22 14 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 34 CX,CY: 22/ 26 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -11. -16. -20. -26. -32. -37. -41. -45. -48. -51. -53. -54. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -9. -13. -18. -24. -29. -32. -35. -40. -46. -53. -57. -60. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -5. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -13. -30. -35. -38. -40. -42. -43. -43. -41. -40. -38. -37. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -17. -24. -29. -45. -73. -88.-100.-107.-113.-119.-126.-134.-139.-143.-145. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 43.0 28.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 10/02/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 68.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 4.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.47 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 338.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.58 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 93.4 104.5 to 0.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 10/02/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 61 53 46 41 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 61 54 49 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 59 54 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 55 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT