* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 10/01/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 90 88 85 70 50 42 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 90 90 88 85 70 50 42 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 89 88 85 80 66 52 43 34 27 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 11 11 18 23 46 53 33 36 41 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 4 12 13 7 5 1 4 10 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 258 236 207 190 188 191 207 220 296 293 275 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 26.4 26.6 25.4 24.3 20.2 16.4 14.9 13.8 13.5 13.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 121 124 114 106 87 77 72 68 66 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 113 109 113 105 99 82 73 68 64 62 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -51.8 -50.8 -51.7 -55.9 -57.4 -56.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.8 2.1 1.0 1.8 3.1 1.4 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 59 52 45 38 38 42 48 57 52 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 46 47 47 48 47 44 41 43 33 21 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 70 83 77 91 87 106 111 80 61 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 95 115 86 127 158 92 73 35 27 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 27 25 28 19 -7 -62 -41 17 46 72 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1966 1892 1836 1808 1815 1586 978 499 298 211 173 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.3 32.8 34.2 36.1 38.0 42.9 48.3 52.7 55.0 55.7 56.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 41.9 40.4 38.9 36.6 34.4 28.6 22.7 17.6 14.2 11.6 9.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 19 23 26 30 33 31 21 11 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 12 CX,CY: 4/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 761 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -19. -30. -40. -50. -58. -62. -65. -69. -71. -72. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -9. -16. -19. -18. -19. -20. -22. -24. -27. -29. -30. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -7. -6. -21. -39. -54. -55. -55. -53. -51. -49. -47. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -2. -5. -20. -40. -48. -68. -92.-114.-119.-122.-123.-125.-126.-129. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 31.3 41.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 10/01/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.38 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 116.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.67 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 490.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 40.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.61 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 1.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 10/01/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 10/01/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 12( 23) 10( 30) 4( 33) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 90 90 88 85 70 50 42 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 89 87 84 69 49 41 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 84 81 66 46 38 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 77 62 42 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 56 36 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 90 81 75 72 62 42 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 90 90 81 75 71 51 43 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS