* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/28/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 108 105 100 96 91 92 91 87 77 58 37 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 110 108 105 100 96 91 92 91 87 77 58 37 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 110 109 106 101 97 92 90 89 84 72 55 39 30 26 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 19 19 20 20 13 13 16 21 33 50 49 59 51 50 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 8 9 6 5 5 0 1 8 8 6 8 2 4 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 275 282 279 264 263 255 214 223 198 194 194 226 257 282 282 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 26.3 25.5 23.6 19.7 16.4 14.8 15.2 13.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 133 135 135 135 136 120 114 101 85 77 73 72 70 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 122 121 119 119 119 118 120 108 104 94 80 73 69 68 67 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -52.7 -52.4 -53.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.7 -54.5 -57.6 -58.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.9 0.6 0.6 0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 61 66 67 67 62 60 59 49 40 40 59 55 52 56 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 36 39 41 41 42 44 48 48 49 48 41 33 23 13 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 37 33 37 36 33 52 46 96 82 39 51 56 58 22 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 28 41 51 90 40 70 85 151 120 58 63 22 -11 -11 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 14 20 25 21 17 23 27 -5 -29 -16 -46 30 21 56 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2143 2236 2275 2318 2363 2238 2082 1936 1854 1911 1420 827 250 -88 16 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.9 23.8 24.7 25.5 26.3 28.0 29.8 32.1 35.2 38.8 43.2 48.2 51.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.0 44.9 44.8 44.6 44.4 43.7 42.8 40.8 37.1 32.3 26.6 20.2 13.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 9 9 12 18 24 29 32 30 24 20 20 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 20 15 14 13 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 9 CX,CY: -1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -18. -28. -38. -47. -55. -63. -70. -77. -81. -82. -82. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -13. -14. -12. -8. -6. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 5. 10. 11. 13. 10. 1. -11. -26. -37. -48. -46. -45. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -10. -14. -19. -18. -19. -23. -33. -52. -73. -93.-108.-122.-123.-126. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 22.9 45.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/28/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.29 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 455.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.7% 4.7% 2.7% 2.3% 1.1% 0.8% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 5.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 1.8% 1.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 09/28/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/28/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 27( 48) 19( 58) 12( 63) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 7 2( 9) 0( 9) 0( 9) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 108 105 100 96 91 92 91 87 77 58 37 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 110 109 106 101 97 92 93 92 88 78 59 38 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 110 107 106 101 97 92 93 92 88 78 59 38 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 96 91 92 91 87 77 58 37 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 110 101 95 92 91 86 87 86 82 72 53 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 110 108 99 93 90 88 89 88 84 74 55 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 110 108 105 96 90 86 87 86 82 72 53 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS