* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/28/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 100 95 92 87 82 78 80 78 80 76 66 46 38 27 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 100 95 92 87 82 78 80 78 80 76 66 46 38 27 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 98 92 89 86 85 85 85 85 82 74 59 45 40 37 33 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 19 19 21 16 15 12 19 19 33 43 54 41 63 43 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 2 3 5 6 5 2 1 2 6 5 8 20 5 15 -1 SHEAR DIR 266 286 292 283 282 271 256 236 244 226 197 195 203 250 269 219 181 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.0 26.1 24.3 21.3 17.7 15.2 13.8 12.5 11.0 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 133 133 133 134 135 136 126 118 105 89 79 73 69 67 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 120 121 120 119 118 119 120 113 107 96 83 74 69 66 64 64 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -52.0 -50.7 -51.5 -53.6 -50.3 -45.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.2 1.5 1.6 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 60 59 61 64 68 68 65 63 61 43 42 55 56 62 79 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 40 38 38 38 38 41 43 48 48 50 49 47 38 38 34 25 7 850 MB ENV VOR 59 41 35 37 35 46 46 52 51 97 93 64 114 151 243 255 417 200 MB DIV 60 29 41 28 30 51 48 46 70 150 148 73 52 74 58 111 92 700-850 TADV 11 7 14 12 13 18 17 29 34 17 -33 -74 -20 59 174 1 0 LAND (KM) 1944 2014 2086 2174 2260 2386 2342 2184 2047 1933 1898 1659 1235 733 648 840 1067 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 21.3 22.1 23.0 23.8 25.5 27.2 29.1 31.3 34.0 37.4 41.6 46.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.0 44.3 44.5 44.4 44.4 43.9 43.1 42.0 40.1 37.5 33.8 29.2 24.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 12 16 20 25 28 28 22 15 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 36 36 39 27 18 12 10 11 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -15. -24. -31. -39. -45. -51. -57. -64. -69. -73. -75. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -12. -7. -5. -3. -2. -3. -6. -6. -10. -13. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -0. 2. 6. 6. 9. 7. 3. -9. -11. -15. -26. -45. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -13. -18. -23. -27. -25. -27. -25. -29. -39. -59. -67. -78. -96.-121. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 20.4 44.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/28/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 460.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 1.2% 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 09/28/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/28/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 17( 39) 10( 45) 8( 50) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 5 1( 6) 0( 6) 0( 6) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 100 95 92 87 82 78 80 78 80 76 66 46 38 27 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 105 104 99 96 91 86 82 84 82 84 80 70 50 42 31 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 105 102 101 98 93 88 84 86 84 86 82 72 52 44 33 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 90 85 81 83 81 83 79 69 49 41 30 DIS DIS NOW 105 96 90 87 86 81 77 79 77 79 75 65 45 37 26 DIS DIS IN 6HR 105 100 91 85 82 79 75 77 75 77 73 63 43 35 24 DIS DIS IN 12HR 105 100 95 86 80 76 72 74 72 74 70 60 40 32 21 DIS DIS