* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/27/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 115 110 105 99 87 82 79 79 78 79 71 63 57 54 38 23 V (KT) LAND 120 115 110 105 99 87 82 79 79 78 79 71 63 57 54 38 23 V (KT) LGEM 120 112 106 100 95 90 89 89 89 87 82 72 61 53 46 40 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 11 12 16 21 20 14 19 14 20 22 30 53 62 31 47 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 2 2 1 5 10 2 1 -3 0 10 5 8 3 16 15 SHEAR DIR 240 247 284 294 292 278 249 244 219 239 204 173 189 196 223 262 214 SST (C) 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.5 26.8 25.6 23.7 20.4 16.7 14.8 14.9 14.8 POT. INT. (KT) 129 131 133 132 133 133 134 135 131 124 114 101 86 76 70 68 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 122 122 121 120 119 118 120 116 110 102 91 80 71 66 64 64 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -51.3 -49.4 -49.0 -51.9 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.9 1.9 1.7 0.9 1.7 2.1 0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 5 3 1 0 0 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 64 64 60 61 60 65 70 68 67 62 57 42 37 41 63 67 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 40 39 37 37 37 36 41 45 47 49 51 48 47 49 52 44 35 850 MB ENV VOR 61 65 53 34 28 30 45 43 59 59 104 109 137 210 219 69 214 200 MB DIV 104 105 69 21 16 35 46 45 71 94 163 110 71 73 47 46 56 700-850 TADV 21 18 13 10 17 16 18 22 23 33 17 -30 -37 -28 41 93 11 LAND (KM) 1889 1947 2009 2083 2159 2323 2456 2318 2163 2029 1934 1908 1612 1149 792 600 427 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.9 20.8 21.7 22.6 24.2 25.9 27.7 29.8 32.1 34.9 38.4 42.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.7 43.1 43.5 43.8 44.0 43.9 43.3 42.3 40.8 38.9 36.2 32.7 28.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 12 13 16 20 24 28 24 14 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 13 27 34 36 31 15 12 9 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 12 CX,CY: -6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -14. -23. -34. -44. -54. -61. -67. -74. -81. -87. -91. -93. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -14. -10. -6. -2. 1. 2. 1. -0. -0. -3. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -2. -4. -1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 5. 2. 4. 7. -3. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -15. -21. -33. -38. -40. -41. -42. -41. -49. -57. -63. -66. -82. -97. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 19.0 42.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/27/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.23 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 1.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.43 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 516.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.65 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 1.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 09/27/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/27/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 29( 52) 21( 62) 10( 66) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 8( 9) 2( 11) 0( 11) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 115 110 105 99 87 82 79 79 78 79 71 63 57 54 38 23 18HR AGO 120 119 114 109 103 91 86 83 83 82 83 75 67 61 58 42 27 12HR AGO 120 117 116 111 105 93 88 85 85 84 85 77 69 63 60 44 29 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 104 92 87 84 84 83 84 76 68 62 59 43 28 NOW 120 111 105 102 101 89 84 81 81 80 81 73 65 59 56 40 25 IN 6HR 120 115 106 100 97 91 86 83 83 82 83 75 67 61 58 42 27 IN 12HR 120 115 110 101 95 91 86 83 83 82 83 75 67 61 58 42 27