* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/27/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 122 117 111 105 91 84 81 81 79 77 76 69 60 57 48 22 V (KT) LAND 125 122 117 111 105 91 84 81 81 79 77 76 69 60 57 48 22 V (KT) LGEM 125 121 115 108 101 92 88 87 88 86 84 78 69 59 51 43 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 10 13 18 23 17 15 12 15 14 24 42 70 45 16 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 7 3 1 0 11 6 4 0 0 10 6 17 8 2 4 SHEAR DIR 238 244 239 280 288 286 273 244 238 240 230 184 203 197 185 130 61 SST (C) 27.0 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.9 27.8 27.1 26.3 25.0 22.7 18.6 15.7 12.9 10.3 POT. INT. (KT) 125 128 130 133 134 132 132 135 135 127 119 109 96 81 76 72 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 120 120 122 122 118 118 120 119 112 106 98 88 76 72 70 69 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -52.9 -51.9 -51.5 -49.2 -48.0 -49.2 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.9 2.0 1.4 1.3 1.7 1.3 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 2 1 0 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 67 65 64 62 64 70 71 69 65 61 43 38 35 49 68 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 40 39 37 38 37 39 43 46 47 48 50 47 46 50 47 30 850 MB ENV VOR 42 56 61 58 39 37 33 45 38 63 69 130 161 212 260 163 -64 200 MB DIV 128 95 110 84 27 37 44 76 55 67 113 137 47 35 56 57 37 700-850 TADV 13 19 17 15 11 19 17 27 26 31 29 -1 -55 -6 8 8 1 LAND (KM) 1869 1918 1973 2038 2105 2273 2436 2397 2251 2105 1995 1933 1838 1409 942 847 994 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 19.1 20.0 20.9 21.8 23.6 25.2 26.9 28.8 30.9 33.3 36.2 40.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.8 42.3 42.8 43.1 43.5 43.7 43.3 42.4 41.1 39.7 37.5 34.6 30.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 10 12 13 17 22 27 29 30 30 30 HEAT CONTENT 7 12 23 29 33 16 12 10 10 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 12 CX,CY: -5/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -7. -10. -16. -26. -39. -49. -60. -67. -73. -79. -86. -91. -95. -97. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -6. -9. -12. -18. -17. -12. -8. -3. 1. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 0. 1. -1. 1. 4. 9. 10. 10. 12. 7. 5. 9. 4. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -14. -20. -34. -41. -44. -44. -46. -48. -49. -56. -65. -68. -77.-103. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 18.1 41.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/27/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.16 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -4.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.55 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 469.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 2.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 09/27/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/27/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 32( 58) 27( 69) 12( 73) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 2( 5) 36( 39) 3( 41) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 122 117 111 105 91 84 81 81 79 77 76 69 60 57 48 22 18HR AGO 125 124 119 113 107 93 86 83 83 81 79 78 71 62 59 50 24 12HR AGO 125 122 121 115 109 95 88 85 85 83 81 80 73 64 61 52 26 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 109 95 88 85 85 83 81 80 73 64 61 52 26 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 92 85 82 82 80 78 77 70 61 58 49 23 IN 6HR 125 122 113 107 104 97 90 87 87 85 83 82 75 66 63 54 28 IN 12HR 125 122 117 108 102 98 91 88 88 86 84 83 76 67 64 55 29