* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/27/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 124 119 114 108 94 84 76 73 71 72 72 63 58 52 56 43 V (KT) LAND 125 124 119 114 108 94 84 76 73 71 72 72 63 58 52 56 43 V (KT) LGEM 125 122 116 108 101 91 87 84 82 83 84 80 70 60 54 50 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 15 14 12 12 24 23 16 13 15 19 18 35 44 55 30 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 6 4 3 0 5 11 6 0 0 3 4 8 9 4 -5 SHEAR DIR 242 239 242 256 280 289 279 245 259 236 239 212 182 180 189 176 118 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.9 27.8 28.0 28.0 27.5 27.1 25.6 23.8 20.7 17.3 14.4 11.1 POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 127 128 129 135 134 137 137 131 127 113 101 87 79 75 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 119 119 119 118 122 119 122 122 116 112 101 92 81 74 72 70 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -52.6 -52.2 -50.3 -48.9 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.8 1.3 1.7 1.5 2.0 1.5 0.7 2.6 2.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 68 67 65 62 62 66 72 71 70 67 55 39 44 50 55 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 37 39 38 38 37 38 39 41 43 47 48 43 42 42 52 45 850 MB ENV VOR 53 41 53 57 52 37 35 35 30 42 52 122 107 109 182 248 197 200 MB DIV 143 117 93 93 76 21 42 47 35 63 84 121 73 84 108 81 27 700-850 TADV 15 11 14 16 13 15 14 23 30 27 29 20 -25 -6 -72 37 -13 LAND (KM) 1824 1861 1899 1957 2020 2154 2332 2489 2334 2180 2061 1963 1920 1604 1159 762 753 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 18.0 18.9 19.9 20.8 22.4 24.1 25.9 27.8 29.9 32.1 34.7 38.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.2 41.8 42.4 42.8 43.3 43.7 43.5 42.8 41.6 40.2 38.3 36.0 32.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 10 12 13 15 19 24 28 31 32 32 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 10 15 23 36 16 14 10 11 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -8. -10. -16. -26. -38. -49. -58. -65. -71. -77. -83. -88. -92. -94. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -8. -9. -14. -16. -11. -7. -3. 1. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. -0. -0. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. 0. -0. 3. 5. 9. 11. 2. 0. -1. 10. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -6. -11. -17. -31. -41. -49. -52. -54. -53. -53. -62. -67. -73. -69. -82. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 17.1 41.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/27/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.16 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -6.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 445.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.47 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 2.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 7.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 09/27/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/27/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 33( 58) 28( 70) 16( 75) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 4 3( 7) 17( 23) 6( 27) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 124 119 114 108 94 84 76 73 71 72 72 63 58 52 56 43 18HR AGO 125 124 119 114 108 94 84 76 73 71 72 72 63 58 52 56 43 12HR AGO 125 122 121 116 110 96 86 78 75 73 74 74 65 60 54 58 45 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 109 95 85 77 74 72 73 73 64 59 53 57 44 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 92 82 74 71 69 70 70 61 56 50 54 41 IN 6HR 125 124 115 109 106 97 87 79 76 74 75 75 66 61 55 59 46 IN 12HR 125 124 119 110 104 100 90 82 79 77 78 78 69 64 58 62 49