* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122019 09/27/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 47 48 48 51 54 55 52 47 46 46 47 47 47 45 V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 47 48 48 51 54 55 52 47 46 46 47 47 47 45 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 48 49 48 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 16 16 11 13 19 16 20 27 35 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 0 0 -1 -3 -3 -2 -2 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 360 349 356 1 346 353 321 288 248 243 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 148 147 146 148 146 139 138 135 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 125 126 124 122 119 123 124 118 117 114 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 55 52 52 51 44 44 46 52 56 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 7 8 7 8 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 3 9 0 6 -8 5 -1 24 14 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 0 3 14 -19 -22 -11 5 16 19 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 4 2 0 0 0 4 0 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1076 1131 1188 1213 1239 1220 1168 1110 1081 1031 985 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.6 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.4 61.8 61.1 60.8 60.4 60.6 61.6 63.0 64.3 65.6 66.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 3 1 3 5 6 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 40 44 43 40 43 39 23 22 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 10 CX,CY: 5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 795 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. -0. -5. -10. -12. -13. -15. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 11. 14. 15. 12. 7. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 27.6 62.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122019 KAREN 09/27/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.63 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.49 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 273.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.61 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 14.6% 10.0% 7.9% 7.1% 10.0% 10.8% 13.2% Logistic: 7.7% 9.1% 13.5% 11.6% 1.2% 5.1% 3.3% 0.8% Bayesian: 1.6% 1.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 8.3% 8.1% 6.6% 2.8% 5.1% 4.7% 4.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122019 KAREN 09/27/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122019 KAREN 09/27/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 45 47 48 48 51 54 55 52 47 46 46 47 47 47 45 18HR AGO 40 39 42 44 45 45 48 51 52 49 44 43 43 44 44 44 42 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 39 39 42 45 46 43 38 37 37 38 38 38 36 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 31 34 37 38 35 30 29 29 30 30 30 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT