* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122019 09/26/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 39 41 43 47 50 53 55 54 52 51 51 50 51 50 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 39 41 43 47 50 53 55 54 52 51 51 50 51 50 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 38 40 42 42 43 43 44 43 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 14 14 11 14 12 19 18 18 20 29 31 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -2 -1 0 1 1 -1 -2 -7 -3 -2 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 26 15 10 12 347 355 341 349 318 278 253 240 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.5 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 150 146 145 147 148 146 150 143 144 141 137 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 134 128 125 125 123 119 127 123 124 121 118 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 64 62 59 56 51 47 43 41 45 49 55 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 11 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -6 -6 0 6 -3 1 6 9 22 31 34 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 20 25 22 15 8 -21 -14 -14 14 3 32 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 9 3 3 2 0 0 2 0 2 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 760 870 979 1049 1119 1197 1215 1154 1048 964 898 844 791 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.9 26.8 27.3 27.8 28.2 28.2 27.9 27.4 27.0 26.7 26.7 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 63.7 63.3 62.8 62.3 61.8 60.9 60.5 61.2 62.6 64.1 65.5 66.7 68.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 8 7 6 3 1 5 7 6 6 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 34 32 36 41 46 46 48 30 27 43 33 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 13 CX,CY: 3/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 24. 25. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. -0. -4. -8. -12. -15. -16. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 19. 17. 16. 16. 15. 16. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 25.0 63.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122019 KAREN 09/26/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.67 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.22 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.60 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.33 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 181.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.74 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 13.0% 8.8% 6.6% 6.0% 9.1% 9.7% 14.1% Logistic: 3.7% 13.4% 9.2% 5.9% 1.8% 5.5% 3.9% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 9.0% 6.1% 4.2% 2.6% 4.9% 4.6% 5.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122019 KAREN 09/26/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122019 KAREN 09/26/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 39 41 43 47 50 53 55 54 52 51 51 50 51 50 18HR AGO 35 34 35 37 39 41 45 48 51 53 52 50 49 49 48 49 48 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 37 41 44 47 49 48 46 45 45 44 45 44 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 29 33 36 39 41 40 38 37 37 36 37 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT