* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122019 09/25/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 36 36 39 43 49 52 55 59 60 60 57 52 50 48 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 36 36 39 43 49 52 55 59 60 60 57 52 50 48 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 33 33 34 36 39 41 44 46 48 49 47 42 37 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 16 16 14 10 11 12 13 12 11 26 29 42 35 32 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -4 -2 -1 -1 0 0 -3 -3 -6 -4 -4 -5 -3 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 54 51 35 33 34 11 14 354 16 333 293 261 261 258 255 266 266 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.3 29.1 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.0 29.2 29.3 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.3 28.2 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 155 156 152 148 149 152 150 154 156 146 148 146 140 139 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 138 140 139 134 125 123 127 128 134 136 129 132 130 124 123 127 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 68 69 69 66 65 59 53 51 48 44 49 51 57 59 57 57 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 8 8 7 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -9 -15 -11 -13 -3 -6 -13 5 -2 17 26 36 34 28 21 2 200 MB DIV 38 33 8 3 22 11 -3 -9 -14 -13 20 6 22 14 -4 -9 25 700-850 TADV -1 0 -2 0 8 2 5 0 1 0 0 1 0 2 2 3 5 LAND (KM) 450 572 694 795 896 1038 1093 1048 976 888 812 714 636 600 498 417 294 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 23.3 24.4 25.3 26.1 27.2 27.5 27.1 26.7 26.3 25.9 25.7 25.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.5 64.1 63.8 63.5 63.1 62.3 61.7 61.8 62.6 64.1 65.7 67.4 69.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 8 5 1 3 6 7 7 8 9 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 42 33 34 37 36 40 49 49 38 36 45 28 38 40 39 68 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 12 CX,CY: 3/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. -3. -8. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. -11. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 17. 20. 24. 25. 25. 22. 17. 15. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.3 64.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122019 KAREN 09/25/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.62 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.23 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.67 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 13.6% 9.0% 6.6% 6.2% 9.6% 10.6% 16.6% Logistic: 3.7% 15.6% 8.2% 4.0% 2.5% 5.9% 6.4% 2.4% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 10.2% 5.8% 3.5% 2.9% 5.2% 5.7% 6.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122019 KAREN 09/25/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122019 KAREN 09/25/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 36 36 39 43 49 52 55 59 60 60 57 52 50 48 18HR AGO 35 34 34 35 35 38 42 48 51 54 58 59 59 56 51 49 47 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 32 35 39 45 48 51 55 56 56 53 48 46 44 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 28 32 38 41 44 48 49 49 46 41 39 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT