* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/25/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 81 87 93 97 102 99 95 89 81 79 77 79 81 81 77 70 V (KT) LAND 75 81 87 93 97 102 99 95 89 81 79 77 79 81 81 77 70 V (KT) LGEM 75 81 86 90 94 99 95 86 81 80 80 80 81 81 77 68 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 4 2 4 7 9 10 18 22 24 20 17 14 17 22 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 3 3 3 5 5 0 -3 0 -3 2 0 5 5 4 9 SHEAR DIR 330 356 317 252 261 239 235 258 271 261 248 240 219 235 226 217 239 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.5 27.6 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.7 26.7 25.9 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 136 139 137 136 130 131 135 134 135 136 135 133 122 115 103 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 132 133 135 132 129 122 121 122 119 119 120 118 116 107 100 90 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -53.4 -54.2 -54.9 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.5 1.8 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 4 2 1 700-500 MB RH 73 72 72 72 72 70 63 61 61 63 63 60 55 47 31 31 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 34 34 35 36 39 38 37 36 35 38 40 43 45 46 43 40 850 MB ENV VOR 78 77 76 57 60 77 74 77 70 78 92 104 147 127 125 56 -77 200 MB DIV 110 110 110 93 115 118 57 43 17 9 68 47 64 62 39 10 -29 700-850 TADV -2 1 8 3 5 8 11 11 6 11 10 6 5 3 1 -28 -70 LAND (KM) 1834 1951 1934 1876 1826 1825 1877 1952 2076 2207 2313 2382 2241 2107 1994 1895 1846 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.5 15.0 15.4 16.8 18.5 20.2 21.9 23.4 25.0 26.6 28.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.5 35.8 37.1 38.1 39.2 40.8 42.2 43.5 44.3 44.7 44.5 43.8 42.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 11 11 10 10 8 8 8 9 10 11 14 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 18 29 24 15 12 24 44 25 16 13 10 9 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. 1. 4. 7. 9. 8. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 6. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 18. 22. 27. 24. 20. 14. 6. 4. 2. 4. 6. 6. 2. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 13.8 34.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/25/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 12.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.73 6.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 4.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.28 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.63 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 202.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 2.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 4.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.9% 46.7% 36.0% 23.4% 16.1% 21.2% 13.4% 0.0% Logistic: 16.7% 38.5% 20.4% 14.4% 9.0% 14.3% 4.6% 1.1% Bayesian: 53.4% 68.0% 43.9% 18.2% 15.1% 13.0% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 31.0% 51.1% 33.4% 18.7% 13.4% 16.2% 6.1% 0.4% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/25/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 10( 15) 20( 32) 24( 48) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 3( 3) 9( 12) 2( 13) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 81 87 93 97 102 99 95 89 81 79 77 79 81 81 77 70 18HR AGO 75 74 80 86 90 95 92 88 82 74 72 70 72 74 74 70 63 12HR AGO 75 72 71 77 81 86 83 79 73 65 63 61 63 65 65 61 54 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 69 74 71 67 61 53 51 49 51 53 53 49 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 81 87 78 72 68 65 61 55 47 45 43 45 47 47 43 36