* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/25/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 77 84 90 96 103 104 101 100 91 88 83 81 82 82 83 76 V (KT) LAND 70 77 84 90 96 103 104 101 100 91 88 83 81 82 82 83 76 V (KT) LGEM 70 76 82 87 92 99 100 95 90 87 84 82 79 78 76 72 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 7 3 0 6 9 5 11 18 23 26 29 24 19 20 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 1 1 4 5 4 2 0 0 1 0 -4 -1 4 6 2 SHEAR DIR 316 11 25 339 231 267 235 244 256 271 266 251 243 239 239 213 217 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.5 27.7 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.0 27.7 26.6 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 135 136 140 138 133 130 132 136 134 134 137 136 134 121 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 134 133 134 137 133 126 122 121 122 119 118 120 119 117 106 102 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.0 -53.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -52.8 -52.8 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.3 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 6 5 2 700-500 MB RH 71 71 71 72 73 73 69 63 63 63 61 60 56 49 44 38 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 32 32 32 34 36 39 38 40 38 40 41 44 46 47 50 46 850 MB ENV VOR 82 78 72 70 58 65 62 79 75 79 83 104 114 140 129 128 93 200 MB DIV 131 122 103 91 82 146 105 77 52 26 23 65 59 56 55 47 26 700-850 TADV 3 0 0 5 1 6 7 7 8 7 14 9 7 7 6 3 -20 LAND (KM) 1699 1835 1935 1936 1861 1798 1817 1873 1973 2079 2182 2254 2348 2238 2101 1955 1842 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.9 17.4 19.1 20.8 22.3 23.8 25.3 26.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.2 34.5 35.8 37.0 38.2 40.1 41.7 43.1 44.2 45.1 45.5 45.2 44.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 12 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 8 9 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 12 17 29 21 12 14 30 49 23 16 15 11 8 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -5. -5. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 8. 9. 6. 9. 10. 12. 14. 14. 16. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 8. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 20. 26. 33. 34. 31. 30. 21. 18. 13. 11. 12. 12. 13. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 13.4 33.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/25/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 13.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.70 6.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.11 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.93 6.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 4.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.34 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.62 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 206.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 2.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.90 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 4.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 9.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 25.9% 51.2% 39.6% 27.8% 21.5% 28.5% 18.8% 17.3% Logistic: 21.5% 48.0% 28.2% 21.7% 15.4% 22.9% 12.0% 2.8% Bayesian: 51.5% 72.5% 50.8% 23.4% 20.9% 21.9% 2.5% 0.1% Consensus: 33.0% 57.2% 39.5% 24.3% 19.3% 24.5% 11.1% 6.8% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/25/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 9( 13) 19( 29) 25( 47) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 1( 2) 23( 25) 9( 31) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 77 84 90 96 103 104 101 100 91 88 83 81 82 82 83 76 18HR AGO 70 69 76 82 88 95 96 93 92 83 80 75 73 74 74 75 68 12HR AGO 70 67 66 72 78 85 86 83 82 73 70 65 63 64 64 65 58 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 66 73 74 71 70 61 58 53 51 52 52 53 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 70 77 84 75 69 65 66 63 62 53 50 45 43 44 44 45 38