* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122019 09/24/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 45 46 49 51 55 60 64 66 70 73 73 72 71 67 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 45 45 48 50 54 60 63 66 69 73 73 71 70 67 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 44 45 47 50 54 58 63 66 68 70 71 68 62 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 11 10 14 15 12 11 4 5 9 10 12 18 30 33 37 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 1 -5 0 0 0 1 -4 -4 -7 -4 -4 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 21 19 27 47 65 56 58 15 31 350 9 313 279 256 241 250 236 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.4 29.4 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.8 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.2 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 157 154 154 158 158 149 147 145 146 150 147 144 144 139 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 155 149 145 143 143 139 127 122 120 124 128 127 125 126 121 118 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 71 71 70 69 69 67 62 55 48 44 41 39 40 43 50 55 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 1 5 -9 -23 -28 -32 -27 -21 0 0 19 8 24 32 41 33 25 200 MB DIV 46 41 27 18 43 13 14 5 -3 -19 -12 -10 11 -10 14 21 27 700-850 TADV -1 -3 0 4 7 -3 4 4 0 0 0 -1 0 3 3 -1 6 LAND (KM) 56 23 133 260 387 632 823 972 1031 1031 1000 954 879 791 737 689 610 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.6 19.6 20.7 21.8 23.9 25.5 26.7 27.2 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.9 65.7 65.5 65.1 64.8 64.1 63.4 62.7 62.5 62.8 63.5 64.7 66.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 11 11 10 8 5 1 2 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 75 69 69 69 56 34 37 36 36 32 28 28 27 27 38 36 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 19. 21. 23. 25. 26. 25. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 2. -1. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 9. 11. 15. 20. 24. 26. 30. 33. 33. 32. 31. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.5 65.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122019 KAREN 09/24/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.58 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 67.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.42 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.72 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.09 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 105.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 17.9% 12.0% 9.1% 8.6% 11.8% 13.0% 18.8% Logistic: 5.5% 15.1% 7.7% 6.8% 4.3% 17.7% 30.4% 15.0% Bayesian: 4.3% 7.2% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 2.4% 6.5% 1.8% Consensus: 5.6% 13.4% 7.4% 5.5% 4.4% 10.6% 16.6% 11.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122019 KAREN 09/24/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122019 KAREN 09/24/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 44 45 45 48 50 54 60 63 66 69 73 73 71 70 67 18HR AGO 40 39 41 42 42 45 47 51 57 60 63 66 70 70 68 67 64 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 37 40 42 46 52 55 58 61 65 65 63 62 59 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 33 35 39 45 48 51 54 58 58 56 55 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT