* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/24/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 54 53 52 48 45 40 39 37 36 36 36 35 34 34 35 V (KT) LAND 55 54 54 53 52 48 45 40 39 37 36 36 36 35 34 34 35 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 53 52 50 48 46 45 44 44 45 45 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 18 11 7 13 17 20 25 21 25 22 16 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -1 -3 0 -1 2 4 -2 4 -1 7 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 251 253 304 292 274 310 283 290 283 297 288 294 278 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.4 27.5 27.6 26.1 25.9 25.6 26.2 25.9 26.2 26.4 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 132 128 129 131 115 114 111 116 112 115 117 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 115 112 108 110 111 100 99 96 98 94 96 97 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.9 -54.0 -54.4 -55.3 -56.1 -56.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 56 59 61 56 53 48 43 39 41 39 38 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 23 20 19 15 13 10 10 9 10 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -4 -1 3 24 66 31 20 19 -3 -9 -12 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 7 22 41 23 31 25 11 25 3 -27 -27 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 4 4 7 6 -7 12 8 6 -5 2 -5 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1013 978 932 919 911 1022 1136 1146 1194 1214 1245 1303 1388 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.7 29.4 30.0 30.7 31.3 32.5 33.4 34.3 35.0 35.5 35.5 35.1 34.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.3 68.3 68.3 67.8 67.4 65.3 62.4 59.5 56.8 54.6 52.6 50.8 49.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 9 12 13 13 10 9 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 15 11 13 19 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -11. -16. -19. -21. -21. -23. -23. -23. -22. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -15. -16. -18. -19. -19. -19. -20. -21. -21. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 28.7 68.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/24/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.56 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.23 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.26 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 277.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.89 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 11.6% 7.9% 6.4% 5.6% 8.6% 7.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 4.3% 2.8% 2.2% 1.9% 2.9% 2.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/24/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/24/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 54 53 52 48 45 40 39 37 36 36 36 35 34 34 35 18HR AGO 55 54 54 53 52 48 45 40 39 37 36 36 36 35 34 34 35 12HR AGO 55 52 51 50 49 45 42 37 36 34 33 33 33 32 31 31 32 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 40 37 32 31 29 28 28 28 27 26 26 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT