* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/23/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 52 59 64 72 77 81 81 82 81 82 80 80 78 83 82 V (KT) LAND 40 46 52 59 64 72 77 81 81 82 81 82 80 80 78 83 82 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 50 56 61 69 74 77 83 84 81 78 76 73 72 73 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 5 7 8 15 8 7 9 15 15 15 17 26 24 20 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 3 5 8 1 3 4 9 4 -3 -4 -3 -5 -2 2 0 SHEAR DIR 321 299 333 310 324 337 355 312 242 225 221 217 217 233 235 229 216 SST (C) 28.5 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.3 27.6 28.0 27.7 27.7 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.2 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 150 147 145 147 142 133 138 134 133 139 137 138 139 142 139 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 150 147 145 147 142 132 136 130 128 133 127 126 125 126 122 115 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -52.9 -53.8 -53.2 -53.6 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 76 76 74 74 73 72 71 70 65 64 55 53 52 54 54 55 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 22 24 24 27 27 27 27 30 29 30 29 30 30 35 36 850 MB ENV VOR 45 53 54 57 68 82 76 73 75 90 89 85 81 103 106 99 121 200 MB DIV 77 91 102 107 126 61 75 60 60 38 60 17 14 9 38 47 69 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -2 0 -5 -6 0 2 3 1 3 -2 0 5 6 7 8 LAND (KM) 878 1012 1145 1278 1413 1689 1865 1812 1703 1677 1685 1753 1862 1926 1960 2041 2139 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.5 11.7 12.0 12.2 12.7 13.3 14.1 15.1 16.4 17.9 19.5 21.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 24.8 26.2 27.6 28.9 30.3 33.0 35.6 38.2 40.5 42.5 44.4 46.1 47.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 12 10 9 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 10 13 11 12 17 18 11 20 24 13 14 18 20 26 40 24 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 13. 16. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. 26. 26. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 6. 6. 8. 8. 10. 9. 10. 7. 8. 6. 11. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 11. 7. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 19. 24. 32. 37. 41. 41. 42. 41. 42. 40. 40. 38. 43. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 11.2 24.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/23/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 7.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.66 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.70 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.60 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 38.7% 23.5% 9.6% 9.2% 14.7% 18.0% 27.7% Logistic: 15.8% 45.7% 30.7% 16.5% 6.3% 12.9% 12.4% 7.6% Bayesian: 7.2% 24.2% 12.8% 1.6% 2.9% 10.3% 25.2% 22.9% Consensus: 10.2% 36.2% 22.3% 9.2% 6.1% 12.6% 18.5% 19.4% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/23/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 46 52 59 64 72 77 81 81 82 81 82 80 80 78 83 82 18HR AGO 40 39 45 52 57 65 70 74 74 75 74 75 73 73 71 76 75 12HR AGO 40 37 36 43 48 56 61 65 65 66 65 66 64 64 62 67 66 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 35 43 48 52 52 53 52 53 51 51 49 54 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT