* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/23/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 52 52 51 48 43 38 37 37 35 32 25 23 22 23 24 V (KT) LAND 55 53 52 52 51 48 43 38 37 37 35 32 25 23 22 23 24 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 53 51 49 44 42 40 39 39 37 34 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 37 33 29 19 12 17 25 31 36 29 19 14 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 3 0 -2 2 4 5 -2 -2 0 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 272 261 251 266 307 285 310 285 297 304 324 308 344 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.1 27.3 25.9 25.6 25.5 25.4 25.9 25.4 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 134 129 124 127 114 112 110 109 114 109 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 122 118 114 109 105 109 99 98 95 94 97 94 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.9 -54.2 -54.6 -55.8 -56.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 -0.1 0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 3 2 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 56 54 53 56 54 49 43 35 26 27 31 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 22 23 22 18 15 13 14 15 14 11 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -13 0 -6 -13 19 33 31 26 22 2 -4 -45 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 73 55 35 12 18 20 30 14 5 -5 -17 -31 -59 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 11 0 6 5 7 13 23 16 4 2 5 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 923 989 996 950 904 895 1010 1056 1054 1085 1111 1146 1229 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.8 28.5 29.1 29.8 30.4 31.7 33.0 34.4 35.6 36.3 36.7 36.7 36.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.9 68.1 68.3 68.3 68.3 67.3 65.2 62.0 58.7 55.9 52.9 49.7 46.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 7 9 13 15 13 12 12 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 22 18 12 9 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -14. -14. -14. -16. -17. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 0. -3. -8. -12. -12. -12. -15. -19. -26. -26. -25. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -4. -7. -12. -17. -18. -18. -20. -23. -30. -32. -33. -32. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 27.8 67.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/23/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.24 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.15 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.28 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.32 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.04 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 312.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.60 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.93 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 6.7% 4.7% 4.2% 3.3% 6.5% 4.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 2.3% 1.6% 1.4% 1.1% 2.2% 1.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/23/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/23/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 53 52 52 51 48 43 38 37 37 35 32 25 23 22 23 24 18HR AGO 55 54 53 53 52 49 44 39 38 38 36 33 26 24 23 24 25 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 50 47 42 37 36 36 34 31 24 22 21 22 23 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 41 36 31 30 30 28 25 18 16 15 16 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT