* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/23/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 36 36 31 29 25 23 21 22 24 26 29 31 33 35 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 36 36 31 29 25 23 21 22 24 26 29 31 33 35 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 34 31 26 21 18 16 15 15 16 17 17 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 4 5 4 12 21 20 11 6 9 10 9 5 11 14 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -1 1 0 4 -1 0 0 -3 -3 -5 -6 -6 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 25 320 315 234 192 224 225 233 244 279 299 321 273 270 250 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.0 27.0 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 135 135 136 136 132 131 129 131 134 138 139 140 140 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 55 59 61 64 66 64 55 49 47 43 43 44 43 41 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 14 14 11 10 6 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 82 73 65 54 33 7 -21 -4 15 25 42 54 68 82 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 50 36 56 52 56 52 46 16 -5 -12 -29 -10 -20 -19 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -4 -3 3 14 1 0 -1 -1 0 0 -2 1 -3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2235 2169 2103 2029 1956 1806 1676 1577 1505 1478 1443 1410 1389 1397 1403 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.6 15.5 15.9 16.3 17.4 18.3 18.6 18.5 18.2 17.8 17.4 17.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 134.1 134.8 135.4 136.0 136.6 137.8 138.9 139.8 140.5 140.8 141.2 141.6 141.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 8 6 4 3 2 3 3 2 1 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 12 11 10 12 20 5 4 4 5 9 15 18 19 19 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21. 22. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -8. -11. -14. -14. -12. -12. -10. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. -4. -6. -10. -12. -13. -13. -11. -9. -6. -4. -2. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.6 134.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/23/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.61 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.69 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 165.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.72 -4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.68 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.7% 20.0% 16.3% 12.1% 8.4% 8.2% 12.4% 12.2% Logistic: 2.0% 8.8% 5.9% 1.9% 1.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 9.6% 7.4% 4.7% 3.1% 3.0% 4.2% 4.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/23/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##