* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/23/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 54 53 53 54 53 49 44 40 39 36 35 36 42 40 39 V (KT) LAND 55 54 54 53 53 54 53 49 44 40 39 36 35 36 42 40 39 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 54 53 51 47 42 40 38 36 35 34 35 39 45 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 35 41 34 33 32 11 15 20 29 32 22 19 26 28 36 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 5 5 1 0 2 4 6 -1 2 -2 3 8 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 277 274 263 250 246 291 281 301 271 295 298 297 271 245 207 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.5 28.1 27.8 26.8 26.8 26.2 25.5 25.5 25.8 25.5 23.2 24.3 22.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 143 137 133 121 122 117 111 111 113 111 95 103 93 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 132 128 122 116 112 103 103 101 97 96 97 95 84 90 82 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -53.2 -53.4 -54.4 -54.7 -55.0 -55.7 -54.7 -54.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.7 1.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 52 53 51 48 50 52 44 40 37 33 33 39 53 59 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 20 21 21 22 23 19 16 12 10 10 8 8 12 20 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -26 -14 -4 2 0 31 68 46 32 26 -7 11 110 139 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 76 61 64 65 58 15 33 61 11 -2 3 2 27 42 59 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 10 7 7 4 2 8 -2 2 12 4 -3 -13 9 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 871 937 1005 1026 961 871 877 983 989 999 1000 939 914 1017 1232 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.1 27.8 28.5 29.2 29.8 31.2 32.5 33.8 35.1 36.4 37.5 38.3 39.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.1 67.4 67.6 67.9 68.1 68.0 67.0 64.9 61.7 58.3 55.0 51.9 48.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 9 13 15 15 13 14 16 18 18 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 31 25 19 15 13 16 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 9 CX,CY: -1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 716 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 35.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -15. -16. -19. -22. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 1. -4. -10. -13. -15. -19. -19. -14. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -6. -11. -15. -16. -19. -20. -19. -13. -15. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 27.1 67.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/23/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 46.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 35.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.03 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.44 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.04 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 342.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.57 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.91 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 1.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/23/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/23/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 54 53 53 54 53 49 44 40 39 36 35 36 42 40 39 18HR AGO 55 54 54 53 53 54 53 49 44 40 39 36 35 36 42 40 39 12HR AGO 55 52 51 50 50 51 50 46 41 37 36 33 32 33 39 37 36 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 46 45 41 36 32 31 28 27 28 34 32 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT