* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/22/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 35 35 31 26 23 21 21 22 23 24 25 27 29 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 35 35 31 26 23 21 21 22 23 24 25 27 29 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 34 32 28 23 19 17 17 17 17 16 17 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 4 3 6 7 16 18 13 5 8 13 12 10 16 19 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -4 0 0 2 9 -4 3 -5 0 -3 -2 -2 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 32 74 240 247 217 199 206 215 247 299 305 311 298 260 262 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 135 135 135 137 134 129 128 129 131 135 136 137 139 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 54 55 57 59 63 59 51 44 40 35 40 42 45 43 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 14 14 13 13 11 7 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 57 79 82 67 57 28 3 -11 19 26 52 52 68 66 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 43 45 45 55 53 40 39 11 12 2 -6 0 -3 -9 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -1 -2 7 10 -1 -2 -2 0 0 -2 1 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2271 2214 2157 2095 2034 1896 1760 1667 1605 1555 1520 1497 1495 1503 1510 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.0 15.8 16.0 16.1 17.1 18.3 19.0 19.0 18.7 18.2 17.7 17.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 133.6 134.2 134.8 135.4 135.9 137.0 138.1 138.9 139.5 140.0 140.4 140.7 140.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 6 7 7 4 3 3 3 3 1 1 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 13 11 11 11 18 9 3 3 4 5 9 13 15 17 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. 20. 21. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -6. -10. -12. -11. -9. -9. -7. -7. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -4. -9. -12. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -8. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.2 133.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/22/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.61 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.68 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 189.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 -4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.33 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 17.5% 15.1% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 11.4% Logistic: 0.9% 4.8% 3.2% 0.8% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 7.5% 6.1% 4.0% 0.2% 0.1% 4.0% 3.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/22/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##