* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122019 09/22/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 36 37 39 45 47 50 53 59 65 70 71 72 72 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 36 37 39 44 46 48 52 57 63 68 70 70 71 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 36 36 36 36 36 39 42 45 49 53 57 60 61 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 20 29 29 20 16 9 15 10 10 3 1 10 14 22 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 -3 -4 -2 -2 -1 1 0 -2 -2 -2 1 -4 -4 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 19 28 33 37 41 33 31 29 70 84 108 195 180 270 272 280 279 SST (C) 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 164 161 161 161 161 163 161 161 159 158 156 150 148 145 144 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 160 162 158 155 154 154 154 150 146 141 138 135 129 127 124 124 120 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 5 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 69 67 67 66 65 68 68 70 69 64 60 54 54 50 50 48 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 11 12 10 7 7 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 14 13 7 3 -2 -14 -11 -19 -29 -35 -39 -35 -26 -35 -15 -14 -5 200 MB DIV 79 51 12 4 20 -8 41 13 45 23 42 44 20 -8 12 -12 -4 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -5 -3 -1 0 0 2 1 1 2 -1 -1 -3 -2 7 4 LAND (KM) 222 283 344 407 364 194 0 145 324 480 601 703 709 670 660 650 645 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.3 13.8 14.4 14.9 16.3 18.0 19.8 21.4 22.8 23.9 24.9 25.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.3 63.0 63.8 64.3 64.8 65.5 65.9 65.9 65.7 65.6 65.7 66.0 66.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 7 8 9 9 8 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 55 59 58 60 65 85 72 77 69 42 32 29 25 32 40 50 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 33. 35. 35. 35. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -14. -16. -16. -16. -17. -16. -16. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 12. 15. 18. 24. 30. 35. 36. 37. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.7 62.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122019 KAREN 09/22/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.43 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 59.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.37 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.84 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 132.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.70 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 14.5% 9.5% 6.7% 6.2% 9.5% 11.4% 18.5% Logistic: 3.1% 6.2% 4.6% 1.9% 0.6% 1.5% 1.6% 3.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 1.8% 2.2% Consensus: 2.9% 7.1% 5.0% 2.9% 2.3% 3.9% 4.9% 7.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122019 KAREN 09/22/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122019 KAREN 09/22/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 35 36 37 39 44 46 48 52 57 63 68 70 70 71 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 35 36 38 43 45 47 51 56 62 67 69 69 70 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 32 33 35 40 42 44 48 53 59 64 66 66 67 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 27 29 34 36 38 42 47 53 58 60 60 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT