* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/22/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 31 32 34 36 36 34 30 26 23 20 20 18 19 18 17 V (KT) LAND 35 32 31 32 34 36 36 34 30 26 23 20 20 18 19 18 17 V (KT) LGEM 35 31 29 28 27 27 27 25 22 19 18 17 17 16 16 15 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 11 13 6 4 9 12 8 8 10 17 17 17 16 19 26 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 -1 -2 -2 2 11 2 -1 -6 -3 0 -2 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 14 14 31 83 168 184 169 163 231 274 283 281 277 265 235 243 253 SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.4 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 135 134 135 135 137 134 130 130 129 130 132 134 134 133 135 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 46 49 50 54 56 59 60 59 54 49 45 42 43 46 46 43 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 14 15 14 13 10 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 10 20 33 54 72 72 54 22 15 8 41 48 55 30 49 39 56 200 MB DIV -33 -7 13 29 46 69 49 11 52 20 29 12 19 2 8 -6 -15 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 5 7 1 -1 -2 0 0 0 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 2157 2238 2248 2190 2133 2013 1885 1773 1691 1616 1565 1539 1525 1543 1558 1581 1606 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 16.8 16.3 16.1 15.9 16.1 17.1 18.1 18.7 18.9 18.8 18.3 17.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 132.6 133.2 133.8 134.4 135.0 136.1 137.1 138.0 138.7 139.4 139.9 140.2 140.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 5 6 7 6 3 3 2 3 2 2 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 13 12 11 11 19 12 4 3 3 5 6 10 12 12 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. 20. 20. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -3. -1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. -12. -15. -15. -17. -16. -17. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.2 132.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/22/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.59 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.62 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 217.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 -3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.82 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 18.3% 13.4% 9.1% 6.7% 9.4% 13.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 6.4% 4.6% 3.1% 2.3% 3.2% 4.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/22/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##