* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIO EP142019 09/22/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 28 26 24 21 19 18 19 19 19 18 18 17 16 16 16 V (KT) LAND 35 32 28 26 24 21 19 18 19 19 19 18 18 17 16 16 16 V (KT) LGEM 35 31 27 24 22 18 17 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 18 16 11 9 4 3 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 6 4 2 -1 -2 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 74 72 70 86 99 168 253 273 242 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.3 26.4 25.8 25.4 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 154 153 146 126 119 114 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 5 5 5 3 4 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 48 48 46 44 44 40 40 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 10 8 7 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 38 39 29 24 9 6 37 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 17 4 5 23 9 3 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -7 -2 -5 4 -4 -8 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 339 281 238 227 222 144 131 102 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.6 21.2 21.9 22.5 23.8 24.9 25.8 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.6 111.0 111.4 111.9 112.4 113.2 113.6 113.7 113.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 8 7 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 14 13 13 9 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 13. 15. 18. 19. 20. 20. 19. 19. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -16. -16. -16. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -17. -16. -16. -16. -17. -17. -18. -19. -18. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.9 110.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142019 MARIO 09/22/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.75 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.15 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 258.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.62 -3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 37.8 to 2.1 1.00 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.2% 13.8% 9.1% 6.6% 10.1% 13.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 6.8% 4.6% 3.0% 2.2% 3.4% 4.6% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142019 MARIO 09/22/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##