* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/22/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 57 57 57 59 62 62 65 61 62 57 48 42 36 37 V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 57 57 57 59 62 62 65 61 62 57 48 42 36 37 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 56 56 56 57 55 52 50 50 51 51 46 40 38 39 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 21 23 24 29 33 34 20 23 24 31 24 30 22 32 38 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 -1 1 1 -1 1 5 4 0 3 1 7 12 2 SHEAR DIR 317 313 298 287 285 271 253 284 283 287 274 295 329 279 254 238 201 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.1 28.8 29.0 28.8 28.1 27.9 26.0 26.0 25.9 25.8 21.8 14.3 16.7 19.7 17.3 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 153 147 150 147 137 135 115 115 115 114 88 70 74 81 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 145 135 129 130 126 117 116 100 101 100 98 78 67 70 74 70 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.9 -54.9 -55.7 -55.6 -55.8 -56.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.3 1.0 0.6 1.6 0.9 0.6 0.1 -0.2 -1.0 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 66 64 61 59 56 53 55 58 46 33 29 25 31 35 41 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 15 16 18 21 22 21 24 22 24 22 18 14 11 15 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -17 -21 -24 -30 -34 -23 -14 23 70 126 114 85 124 121 154 130 200 MB DIV 42 40 43 77 80 57 58 50 73 75 45 -1 33 12 56 41 54 700-850 TADV 14 18 16 18 6 4 1 7 21 32 43 10 36 25 17 31 -31 LAND (KM) 578 638 690 751 815 962 1035 985 1036 999 864 744 601 430 581 940 1319 LAT (DEG N) 23.7 24.5 25.3 26.0 26.7 28.1 29.5 31.0 32.8 34.8 37.0 39.2 41.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.0 66.5 67.0 67.3 67.5 67.6 67.4 66.7 65.0 62.6 59.9 57.2 54.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 7 7 7 8 9 13 15 16 16 16 17 19 20 19 HEAT CONTENT 35 31 26 24 26 24 15 24 1 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 13 CX,CY: -6/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 740 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. -2. -6. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. -21. -23. -26. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 6. 9. 7. 8. 5. -2. -7. -10. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 7. 7. 10. 6. 7. 2. -7. -13. -19. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 23.7 66.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/22/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.38 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.49 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.40 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.12 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 250.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 14.0% 9.3% 7.3% 6.9% 8.8% 6.2% 7.0% Logistic: 0.5% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 5.4% 3.3% 2.5% 2.3% 3.1% 2.2% 2.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/22/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/22/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 56 57 57 57 59 62 62 65 61 62 57 48 42 36 37 18HR AGO 55 54 55 56 56 56 58 61 61 64 60 61 56 47 41 35 36 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 52 52 54 57 57 60 56 57 52 43 37 31 32 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 45 47 50 50 53 49 50 45 36 30 24 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT