* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENA EP152019 09/21/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 61 59 55 54 52 50 46 41 38 37 35 31 27 19 N/A V (KT) LAND 65 70 59 58 54 53 51 49 38 32 29 28 27 27 27 27 N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 68 57 49 52 48 44 39 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 6 13 16 26 32 37 41 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 7 9 7 4 10 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 281 262 223 227 238 242 227 234 263 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.1 29.5 29.8 30.3 30.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 164 167 165 159 161 166 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.3 -51.2 -51.0 -51.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 6 7 4 4 3 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 48 46 44 39 33 32 35 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 6 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 75 71 70 56 26 37 36 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 11 32 26 17 1 47 4 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 7 10 10 19 9 9 12 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 0 11 -10 2 18 39 51 66 -38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.2 24.9 25.6 26.4 27.2 28.6 29.7 30.7 31.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.2 110.7 111.1 111.5 111.9 112.7 113.3 113.7 114.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 8 7 5 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 27 29 30 29 26 29 32 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -10. -16. -23. -28. -30. -33. -36. -39. -43. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -6. -6. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -10. -11. -13. -15. -19. -24. -27. -28. -30. -34. -38. -46. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 24.2 110.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152019 LORENA 09/21/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.60 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.10 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 496.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 78.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152019 LORENA 09/21/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##