* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/21/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 69 69 71 72 72 71 73 77 80 90 89 91 90 86 81 V (KT) LAND 70 69 69 69 71 72 72 71 73 77 80 90 89 91 90 86 81 V (KT) LGEM 70 68 67 67 67 69 70 72 72 69 69 74 74 74 75 69 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 20 17 14 9 18 20 34 30 13 22 14 10 17 17 3 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 5 4 1 2 -1 1 1 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -6 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 340 341 340 348 323 304 288 284 260 292 272 266 242 221 196 195 226 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.3 29.2 29.3 28.7 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.2 27.0 26.8 25.9 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 161 162 164 156 154 155 146 138 137 137 127 124 121 112 107 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 150 152 151 151 140 134 134 126 118 119 118 108 104 101 94 89 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.7 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.8 0.8 1.0 2.2 2.2 2.0 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 9 9 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 57 61 65 68 69 67 63 61 60 54 58 54 49 48 41 42 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 13 13 15 18 21 22 29 26 28 29 27 23 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -3 -7 -1 5 -1 -1 -21 5 23 58 121 149 172 148 154 152 200 MB DIV 26 1 3 20 25 44 73 60 57 36 60 28 65 23 3 9 24 700-850 TADV -4 3 9 8 5 -1 5 12 4 5 14 12 -1 4 -2 -10 -3 LAND (KM) 380 330 325 374 445 506 621 762 911 1019 1015 1083 1044 945 918 904 904 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.6 21.2 21.9 22.5 23.9 25.2 26.5 27.8 29.3 30.9 32.7 34.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.5 63.6 64.8 65.7 66.6 68.0 68.8 68.9 68.5 67.8 66.4 64.5 62.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 9 7 7 7 9 11 12 11 10 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 74 73 76 67 63 38 38 39 25 17 21 14 13 7 10 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -7. -6. -6. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. 3. 5. 7. 15. 11. 11. 12. 8. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 3. 7. 10. 20. 19. 21. 20. 16. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 19.9 62.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/21/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.50 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 70.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.44 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.47 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 350.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.56 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 16.8% 11.5% 11.3% 8.6% 11.2% 9.2% 0.0% Logistic: 4.7% 6.6% 4.4% 3.9% 3.1% 3.3% 1.9% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.7% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 8.3% 5.5% 5.1% 3.9% 4.9% 3.7% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/21/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/21/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 4( 11) 4( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 0( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 69 69 69 71 72 72 71 73 77 80 90 89 91 90 86 81 18HR AGO 70 69 69 69 71 72 72 71 73 77 80 90 89 91 90 86 81 12HR AGO 70 67 66 66 68 69 69 68 70 74 77 87 86 88 87 83 78 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 62 63 63 62 64 68 71 81 80 82 81 77 72 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT