* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIO EP142019 09/20/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 50 46 42 36 29 22 17 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 52 50 46 42 36 29 22 17 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 54 51 48 45 37 30 24 21 19 18 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 28 29 32 28 19 10 8 9 9 10 10 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 0 2 4 2 2 0 0 -1 -2 -5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 67 77 75 78 84 93 104 161 213 283 311 274 258 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.2 28.6 27.2 25.4 24.8 24.3 24.4 24.2 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 152 154 156 150 136 116 109 103 104 102 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.2 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 4 5 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 64 63 60 55 43 37 31 27 22 20 19 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 17 15 14 11 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 55 56 51 63 46 40 40 35 63 94 62 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 85 70 31 28 46 11 6 -6 -4 -18 0 -31 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 3 -3 -7 -7 -3 -4 -2 1 0 -3 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 545 506 446 390 348 356 338 388 386 408 485 593 708 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.3 18.9 19.5 20.1 21.3 22.6 23.9 24.8 25.3 25.3 24.9 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.1 110.3 110.4 111.0 111.5 113.0 114.6 116.0 117.1 118.0 119.0 120.0 121.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 8 9 10 9 8 6 4 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 15 13 12 13 12 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -11. -18. -23. -23. -23. -22. -20. -18. -16. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -9. -13. -19. -26. -33. -38. -39. -40. -40. -41. -42. -43. -44. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.8 110.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142019 MARIO 09/20/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.59 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 39.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 272.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.38 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142019 MARIO 09/20/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##