* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/20/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 49 47 46 43 43 44 45 43 41 39 40 39 38 36 33 V (KT) LAND 50 51 49 47 46 43 43 44 45 43 41 39 40 39 38 36 33 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 50 48 45 41 38 37 38 37 34 30 28 27 27 27 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 13 13 5 1 6 7 17 18 16 12 5 10 16 20 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 6 3 0 4 1 -6 0 0 4 3 -1 -4 -4 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 230 227 257 282 296 214 43 214 200 187 176 189 195 230 268 273 265 SST (C) 26.8 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.7 27.3 27.5 27.4 27.2 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.8 27.4 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 129 130 129 128 126 127 128 134 136 135 133 129 128 128 129 135 141 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 54 54 52 52 51 51 49 52 52 51 54 51 47 44 42 43 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 12 11 9 9 9 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 10 10 8 -6 -8 13 32 64 79 62 36 24 32 48 62 66 62 200 MB DIV 56 44 25 0 -25 -39 7 31 38 58 13 33 31 13 16 25 30 700-850 TADV 2 0 -1 0 0 -2 0 0 2 4 5 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1946 1963 1979 2021 2064 2183 2186 2086 1998 1915 1822 1734 1650 1581 1506 1443 1374 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.2 18.1 17.6 17.2 17.0 17.2 17.7 18.3 18.7 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.6 131.0 131.3 131.8 132.2 133.2 134.2 135.2 136.0 136.7 137.5 138.3 139.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 5 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 21 19 15 11 7 7 10 13 16 19 14 4 3 3 5 12 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -7. -6. -5. -7. -9. -11. -10. -11. -12. -14. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 17.8 130.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/20/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.43 3.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.26 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 305.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.57 -3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 4.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.2% 16.9% 14.7% 11.0% 7.5% 8.5% 11.5% 10.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.9% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 6.3% 5.4% 3.8% 2.6% 2.9% 3.8% 3.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/20/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##