* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/20/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 42 41 40 36 34 33 35 36 35 32 27 23 21 19 18 V (KT) LAND 45 44 42 41 40 36 34 33 35 36 35 32 27 23 21 19 18 V (KT) LGEM 45 42 39 37 35 30 26 24 22 22 20 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 10 10 10 8 4 2 2 6 13 28 32 27 25 18 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 2 7 5 3 5 6 0 4 8 4 1 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 239 248 252 233 219 259 162 206 316 251 214 208 206 205 212 208 219 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.4 26.8 26.4 26.4 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.9 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 138 136 135 129 125 126 129 129 130 131 129 130 132 134 137 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 57 57 56 56 57 55 53 50 47 47 46 43 41 37 35 37 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 15 15 15 13 12 12 12 12 11 9 8 6 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 23 20 15 20 9 5 12 34 61 72 83 67 95 73 52 43 26 200 MB DIV 28 33 51 59 47 -4 -8 6 40 34 38 26 62 51 -11 -5 9 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 0 2 1 2 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1958 1963 1970 1982 1994 2048 2146 2230 2117 2002 1894 1780 1688 1598 1504 1405 1308 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.8 17.5 17.1 17.0 17.0 17.2 17.7 18.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 129.5 129.9 130.3 130.7 131.0 131.8 132.7 133.8 134.9 136.0 137.0 138.0 138.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 14 18 26 32 28 13 7 8 10 10 13 12 5 4 4 7 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -12. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -9. -11. -12. -10. -9. -10. -13. -18. -22. -24. -26. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.4 129.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/20/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.54 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.46 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 231.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.65 -3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 21.1% 16.1% 11.3% 8.6% 9.5% 12.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 4.1% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 8.4% 6.1% 4.1% 3.0% 3.2% 4.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/20/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##