* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/19/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 55 55 54 50 48 49 48 49 46 40 35 33 30 30 V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 55 55 54 50 48 49 48 49 46 40 35 33 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 54 54 52 49 43 39 38 37 37 35 30 26 22 19 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 0 6 5 9 10 8 4 4 4 1 8 14 17 17 13 9 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 0 0 -2 2 4 0 5 7 1 3 5 9 3 3 -3 SHEAR DIR 70 195 198 234 254 228 259 102 85 112 233 211 221 171 191 205 245 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.1 26.6 26.6 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.6 26.8 26.8 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 138 138 138 136 132 128 128 131 131 130 130 127 129 129 128 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 62 58 59 58 58 57 55 53 52 49 50 46 47 42 37 32 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 16 17 17 15 14 16 15 17 16 13 10 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 42 34 23 17 10 7 2 11 34 66 101 103 76 60 66 57 76 200 MB DIV 33 31 34 36 58 48 6 -18 3 38 46 51 26 49 44 -3 8 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0 3 5 2 2 1 0 LAND (KM) 1920 1935 1950 1959 1969 1991 2051 2148 2258 2139 2011 1894 1786 1693 1595 1490 1395 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.4 17.5 17.2 16.8 16.5 16.6 17.2 17.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 128.5 128.9 129.3 129.7 130.1 130.8 131.6 132.5 133.6 134.8 136.0 137.0 137.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 5 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 12 16 22 32 20 10 11 11 9 13 11 3 3 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. -1. -3. -1. -2. -0. -1. -4. -8. -8. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. -0. 0. -1. -5. -7. -6. -7. -6. -9. -15. -20. -22. -25. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.9 128.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/19/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.46 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.63 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 267.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.61 -4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 5.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.30 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.1% 25.8% 20.6% 15.4% 11.1% 14.5% 14.1% 10.3% Logistic: 2.9% 7.5% 3.8% 2.4% 0.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 11.1% 8.2% 5.9% 3.9% 5.1% 4.8% 3.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/19/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##