* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/19/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 87 70 55 45 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 87 70 55 45 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 89 76 63 55 43 38 35 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 62 59 55 49 39 32 38 36 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 19 24 9 5 4 2 0 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 211 213 211 217 211 212 226 239 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 26.6 26.6 25.6 25.8 21.4 15.2 19.6 18.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 122 121 111 113 87 74 84 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 113 105 103 94 95 78 71 79 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.9 -52.6 -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -53.4 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.2 0.9 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 43 43 43 43 56 68 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 44 40 37 34 32 29 28 22 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 123 107 74 52 31 59 91 134 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 78 68 34 45 64 55 72 54 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 32 23 13 9 -15 -29 -45 -45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 925 836 749 655 578 469 481 1000 1581 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.0 37.4 38.7 39.8 40.9 42.5 43.9 45.5 47.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.8 59.8 58.8 58.0 57.2 54.3 48.4 40.1 31.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 14 13 13 18 26 30 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 7 10 0 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 21 CX,CY: 17/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -18. -28. -40. -52. -61. -66. -71. -74. -78. -80. -81. -80. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -9. -19. -27. -32. -38. -39. -38. -35. -33. -31. -31. -32. -32. -32. -34. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -4. -7. -10. -14. -20. -30. -34. -36. -38. -39. -39. -38. -37. -35. -34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -13. -30. -45. -55. -73. -89.-108.-117.-122.-125.-128.-131.-134.-136.-139.-141. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 36.0 60.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/19/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 78.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 1.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.40 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.79 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 547.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 90.2 104.5 to 0.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/19/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/19/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 4( 25) 0( 25) 0( 25) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 87 70 55 45 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 82 67 57 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 81 71 53 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 80 62 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 63 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 IN 6HR 100 87 78 72 69 60 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT