* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIO EP142019 09/19/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 60 63 65 68 65 56 49 43 37 35 34 30 25 18 N/A V (KT) LAND 55 57 60 63 65 68 65 56 49 43 37 35 34 30 25 18 N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 56 57 58 59 58 55 49 43 38 33 28 26 25 23 21 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 21 22 23 22 19 20 28 24 22 16 5 2 8 11 15 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -5 -4 -2 4 2 2 3 4 3 -4 -4 0 1 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 61 60 60 61 61 77 81 84 105 119 146 184 241 26 1 328 294 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.5 27.7 26.2 25.4 24.6 23.8 23.2 22.6 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 149 150 150 151 150 152 149 140 124 115 106 97 91 85 81 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -51.7 -52.2 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.7 -53.3 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 76 76 73 70 69 65 59 53 45 37 30 24 20 20 22 24 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 17 17 17 19 16 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 31 28 27 38 39 61 72 81 51 45 28 48 69 48 23 16 200 MB DIV 133 156 153 132 103 100 68 22 8 15 -11 -17 -24 7 -37 -27 -36 700-850 TADV -7 -1 0 6 5 2 1 -1 2 -1 0 0 -1 -2 1 2 0 LAND (KM) 835 781 728 689 650 583 517 455 447 402 397 394 364 333 323 315 324 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.0 17.3 17.9 18.6 19.6 20.8 22.0 23.2 24.2 25.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.9 111.9 111.9 111.9 111.8 111.7 111.9 112.6 113.7 114.8 115.8 116.4 117.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 3 3 4 7 8 8 7 5 5 3 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 24 19 18 18 19 17 14 12 13 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 5. 2. -1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -14. -12. -11. -11. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 13. 10. 1. -6. -12. -18. -20. -21. -25. -30. -37. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.6 111.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142019 MARIO 09/19/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.56 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.23 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 135.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.87 6.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 -5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 6.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.17 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.0% 38.6% 24.3% 16.4% 11.4% 15.7% 15.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 2.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 13.6% 8.3% 5.6% 3.9% 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142019 MARIO 09/19/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##