* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/19/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 98 81 63 49 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 110 98 81 63 49 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 110 101 88 73 61 46 39 36 35 38 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 57 60 55 54 51 43 33 40 35 30 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 19 23 12 7 2 0 0 4 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 215 214 213 215 216 203 215 232 239 227 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.9 23.4 17.9 17.8 18.9 16.7 15.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 127 124 120 124 96 77 79 82 77 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 114 111 106 102 104 83 72 75 77 73 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.9 -51.3 -51.8 -52.4 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -51.9 -50.6 -49.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.9 1.3 1.2 1.6 0.8 1.0 3.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 40 42 43 44 46 65 67 62 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 44 45 41 37 34 28 27 25 21 20 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 134 131 116 83 69 42 69 103 180 194 208 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 76 48 27 42 56 65 78 64 30 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -16 20 40 59 40 -18 -46 -44 -66 -37 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1009 918 837 764 663 549 425 649 1192 1384 738 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.5 35.8 37.1 38.3 39.5 41.5 42.9 44.3 46.3 48.7 51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.9 61.6 60.3 59.5 58.8 56.7 52.5 45.5 37.2 29.1 20.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 15 13 13 14 22 29 30 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 7 7 6 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 19 CX,CY: 16/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -10. -19. -31. -46. -59. -72. -80. -85. -89. -93. -94. -95. -94. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -10. -22. -32. -40. -49. -49. -45. -41. -35. -28. -27. -27. -25. -25. -27. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -5. -8. -14. -20. -26. -34. -37. -34. -35. -35. -34. -33. -32. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -12. -29. -47. -61. -84. -99.-112.-126.-130.-126.-128.-129.-131.-132.-134.-137. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 34.5 62.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/19/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 83.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -2.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.79 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 616.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 91.4 104.5 to 0.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/19/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/19/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 8( 35) 0( 35) 0( 35) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 98 81 63 49 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 110 109 92 74 60 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 110 107 106 88 74 51 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 86 63 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 68 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 IN 6HR 110 98 89 83 80 69 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT