* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIO EP142019 09/19/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 62 66 68 72 71 67 61 54 48 44 41 36 31 24 18 V (KT) LAND 55 58 62 66 68 72 71 67 61 54 48 44 41 36 31 24 18 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 60 61 62 64 64 62 56 48 40 34 30 27 24 21 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 18 19 19 18 21 28 35 21 18 4 7 16 18 17 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -6 -3 0 1 6 1 10 6 0 0 1 -1 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 66 62 57 63 66 72 93 88 101 97 116 105 18 15 22 9 356 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.1 26.9 26.3 25.9 25.3 24.5 23.5 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 148 150 151 152 153 154 155 145 131 125 120 114 105 95 86 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -51.8 -52.3 -51.5 -52.0 -51.5 -52.1 -51.8 -52.3 -52.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 78 76 76 72 69 65 61 57 48 38 32 29 25 25 23 24 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 15 15 16 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 30 30 30 29 47 68 74 90 79 57 55 38 69 63 51 -19 200 MB DIV 120 115 132 129 121 88 115 38 39 -7 -21 -14 -37 -26 -42 -27 -38 700-850 TADV -8 -9 -5 -2 5 3 4 15 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 LAND (KM) 891 848 803 756 710 653 628 612 599 561 528 513 489 458 423 389 377 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.0 17.6 18.0 18.4 19.3 20.7 21.9 22.9 23.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.1 112.4 112.6 112.6 112.6 112.7 113.0 113.4 114.3 115.5 116.4 116.9 117.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 5 7 8 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 17 14 13 14 15 16 16 17 21 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 13. 17. 16. 12. 6. -1. -7. -11. -14. -19. -24. -31. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.1 112.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142019 MARIO 09/19/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.57 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.31 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 123.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.81 7.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 97.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 -7.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 7.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 3.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.6% 45.3% 30.2% 17.4% 11.9% 17.2% 17.1% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 6.6% 1.9% 1.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 17.4% 10.8% 6.2% 4.3% 5.9% 5.8% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142019 MARIO 09/19/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##