* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/19/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 60 61 63 63 59 59 57 57 56 58 57 52 46 41 36 V (KT) LAND 55 58 60 61 63 63 59 59 57 57 56 58 57 52 46 41 36 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 58 58 58 56 52 49 47 45 45 47 47 43 36 30 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 2 4 2 7 5 5 9 6 6 1 9 15 22 20 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 2 0 2 -3 -1 0 -2 0 1 0 5 9 10 5 8 SHEAR DIR 149 127 180 232 175 268 252 35 86 70 37 255 181 189 166 170 163 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.2 26.6 27.0 27.5 27.5 27.3 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 139 137 137 137 137 134 128 132 137 137 136 131 129 128 125 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 61 65 62 60 61 62 60 57 56 54 56 60 56 50 43 35 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 16 16 17 17 16 17 17 17 17 18 17 14 11 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR 37 47 38 35 25 6 4 0 5 28 59 82 72 51 51 50 47 200 MB DIV 25 31 34 34 43 54 32 23 15 28 18 42 63 36 32 15 -6 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 2 5 1 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 1855 1891 1928 1943 1958 1974 1993 2060 2167 2266 2149 2034 1892 1745 1651 1584 1529 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.8 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.0 16.8 16.4 16.1 16.1 16.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.5 128.0 128.5 128.9 129.2 129.8 130.4 131.3 132.4 133.6 134.8 135.9 137.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 4 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 10 10 12 16 23 19 9 13 15 13 15 8 3 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -4. -7. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 4. 4. 2. 2. 1. 3. 2. -3. -9. -14. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.8 127.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/19/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.47 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.61 5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 241.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.64 -5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 6.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.3% 37.4% 25.8% 17.0% 12.1% 17.2% 16.7% 12.2% Logistic: 17.1% 40.4% 25.7% 20.5% 2.9% 16.0% 3.4% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.7% 26.2% 17.3% 12.5% 5.0% 11.1% 6.7% 4.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/19/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##