* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/19/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 91 79 65 53 34 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 91 79 65 53 34 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 93 83 72 61 45 38 35 34 35 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 47 57 63 55 56 35 31 35 39 32 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 12 15 20 7 6 1 0 3 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 207 215 216 212 210 209 216 233 237 229 226 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.4 27.0 27.1 27.1 23.9 21.8 13.0 20.4 17.9 15.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 132 126 127 127 98 88 72 87 80 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 116 110 109 107 84 79 69 81 75 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.3 -51.0 -51.4 -52.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -52.6 -50.6 -49.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.8 1.4 1.6 0.7 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 38 40 42 43 45 58 69 65 61 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 44 44 45 41 38 32 31 29 24 22 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 139 136 129 118 86 55 76 104 152 209 205 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 81 52 69 29 41 57 54 79 43 73 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -25 -2 27 52 30 2 -16 -27 -70 -59 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1021 987 928 825 744 581 557 465 868 1427 1088 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.2 34.4 35.6 36.9 38.2 40.3 41.8 43.1 44.9 47.3 49.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.0 63.5 62.0 61.1 60.1 58.7 55.8 50.1 42.2 33.8 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 16 15 14 12 17 26 30 31 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 14 8 10 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 17 CX,CY: 15/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -21. -33. -44. -54. -62. -66. -70. -73. -75. -76. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -8. -19. -28. -35. -43. -43. -40. -39. -34. -29. -30. -30. -29. -29. -32. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -3. -5. -11. -16. -21. -30. -34. -34. -35. -35. -34. -33. -31. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -21. -35. -47. -66. -80. -91.-106.-113.-112.-114.-115.-116.-118.-119.-122. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 33.2 65.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/19/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 82.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.39 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 605.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.30 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 62.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/19/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/19/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 7( 27) 0( 27) 0( 27) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 91 79 65 53 34 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 87 73 61 42 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 82 70 51 37 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 78 59 45 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 62 48 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 IN 6HR 100 91 82 76 73 63 49 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT