* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/18/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 62 62 62 60 58 56 55 55 55 56 58 54 50 47 45 V (KT) LAND 55 59 62 62 62 60 58 56 55 55 55 56 58 54 50 47 45 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 60 60 59 55 50 47 45 43 42 44 45 43 38 33 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 3 3 4 6 4 4 4 8 9 8 6 12 20 17 16 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 2 2 2 0 -3 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 3 4 4 6 SHEAR DIR 234 166 195 249 263 275 292 310 67 99 102 129 155 162 168 163 164 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 26.9 26.9 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.0 26.9 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 141 138 138 138 137 136 131 131 137 136 136 135 132 130 127 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 3 700-500 MB RH 59 62 64 63 62 65 64 62 60 59 58 61 61 55 48 41 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 15 13 13 13 12 12 13 13 13 15 13 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 28 32 42 36 26 16 -4 -4 -9 12 21 60 67 56 42 31 59 200 MB DIV 2 18 16 21 39 31 30 23 8 -3 6 9 14 31 10 27 13 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -2 -3 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 -1 1 3 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1820 1859 1900 1925 1951 1981 1998 2040 2137 2265 2211 2061 1926 1798 1696 1632 1572 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.8 15.7 15.8 15.8 16.1 16.5 16.7 16.5 16.1 15.7 15.5 15.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.0 127.5 128.0 128.4 128.8 129.5 130.1 130.8 131.8 133.0 134.3 135.8 137.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 10 9 10 14 19 23 13 11 14 11 13 17 7 4 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. -2. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. -1. -5. -8. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.8 127.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/18/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.49 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.58 4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 242.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.64 -4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 6.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.1% 35.0% 24.9% 17.1% 11.9% 16.1% 16.3% 12.0% Logistic: 23.6% 42.8% 29.1% 24.6% 3.5% 25.0% 9.6% 1.9% Bayesian: 1.3% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 13.3% 26.7% 18.1% 14.0% 5.2% 13.7% 8.6% 4.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/18/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##