* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIO EP142019 09/18/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 59 62 66 70 71 69 65 60 55 52 51 49 46 42 38 V (KT) LAND 50 55 59 62 66 70 71 69 65 60 55 52 51 49 46 42 38 V (KT) LGEM 50 56 60 63 65 69 70 69 64 58 53 48 44 41 38 35 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 15 17 14 13 17 28 24 32 23 12 6 6 13 11 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 -8 -2 0 0 1 0 3 6 4 4 6 3 1 SHEAR DIR 61 61 69 72 71 120 88 109 96 94 88 103 1 357 354 347 318 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 28.8 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.4 27.8 27.2 26.2 25.3 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 151 149 149 151 150 152 153 154 152 146 140 134 123 114 102 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -52.7 -51.9 -52.6 -51.8 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.4 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 80 79 79 77 76 71 67 66 60 56 55 52 52 49 48 41 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 13 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 41 38 33 34 37 50 70 69 71 64 68 49 22 36 20 3 200 MB DIV 122 136 135 127 130 125 92 78 26 34 22 52 4 -14 -25 -30 -29 700-850 TADV -16 -17 -13 -9 -7 8 13 8 8 1 -8 -13 -7 -14 -9 5 9 LAND (KM) 838 852 870 835 804 770 746 707 646 603 562 518 441 384 347 313 238 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.2 16.7 17.0 17.4 18.1 18.8 19.7 20.7 21.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.7 111.4 112.0 112.5 112.9 113.3 113.4 113.4 113.5 113.8 114.2 114.7 115.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 5 2 1 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 22 18 15 14 14 16 16 16 17 18 19 12 7 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 17. 17. 18. 17. 16. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -4. -6. -10. -12. -13. -11. -9. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 16. 20. 21. 19. 15. 10. 5. 2. 1. -1. -4. -8. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.2 110.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142019 MARIO 09/18/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.63 10.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 9.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.34 4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 130.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.85 10.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.85 -9.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 8.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.14 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.78 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 4.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 55% is 9.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.7% 53.7% 40.5% 26.9% 12.7% 20.7% 54.5% 18.2% Logistic: 4.8% 14.6% 6.5% 3.9% 1.6% 3.9% 2.3% 0.5% Bayesian: 5.6% 3.0% 2.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% Consensus: 8.7% 23.7% 16.4% 10.4% 4.8% 8.3% 19.1% 6.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142019 MARIO 09/18/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##