* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENA EP152019 09/18/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 47 48 49 54 57 61 63 61 60 60 60 62 62 62 62 V (KT) LAND 45 47 47 48 49 54 57 61 63 61 60 60 60 62 62 62 62 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 48 49 50 52 55 57 60 61 62 62 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 17 16 14 14 17 17 15 14 18 15 10 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 1 3 7 2 5 4 3 0 -4 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 51 42 33 18 20 11 25 31 38 22 43 42 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.7 30.7 29.8 28.8 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 169 169 168 168 168 169 170 170 162 151 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -51.8 -52.6 -51.8 -52.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 -51.8 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 8 9 8 11 8 10 6 8 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 77 76 73 74 73 71 70 67 66 63 57 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 9 8 8 9 7 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 13 2 -10 10 25 55 66 88 74 74 61 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 102 68 54 57 73 59 69 20 41 22 51 24 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -10 -9 -9 -6 0 0 -3 -8 -11 -10 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 294 243 189 128 88 54 34 68 180 201 84 133 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.5 16.3 17.0 17.7 18.6 19.3 20.0 20.7 21.4 22.2 22.9 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.7 102.3 102.9 103.4 103.9 104.6 105.3 106.2 107.4 108.9 110.3 111.6 112.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 6 7 7 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 31 33 32 33 37 45 48 39 36 16 10 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 14. 19. 21. 24. 26. 28. 30. 33. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -3. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 4. 9. 12. 16. 18. 16. 15. 15. 15. 17. 17. 17. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.7 101.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152019 LORENA 09/18/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.80 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.11 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 59.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 -5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.30 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.72 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 23.1% 17.8% 13.3% 9.0% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 16.0% 5.5% 3.0% 0.6% 7.6% 9.4% 3.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 12.5% 4.4% 1.0% 0.1% 2.6% 1.1% 0.5% Consensus: 4.5% 17.2% 9.2% 5.8% 3.2% 7.3% 3.5% 1.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152019 LORENA 09/18/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##