* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENA EP152019 09/17/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 49 50 51 54 60 65 69 72 75 77 76 75 73 72 71 V (KT) LAND 45 48 49 50 51 54 60 65 69 72 75 77 76 75 73 72 71 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 51 53 54 58 63 69 72 75 78 82 82 79 71 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 14 13 15 14 14 15 14 16 14 14 10 14 8 2 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 3 2 4 5 1 10 5 1 3 2 0 2 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 53 51 39 41 36 30 19 40 40 37 29 15 11 19 160 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.6 30.5 30.7 30.9 30.7 30.0 29.6 27.7 26.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 167 167 169 169 169 170 168 169 169 169 163 159 140 125 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -52.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 6 6 8 8 10 8 8 6 8 6 6 4 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 80 77 76 75 74 71 71 66 64 63 64 62 61 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 6 4 4 5 6 8 9 12 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 18 9 10 -5 29 33 81 78 89 66 69 44 44 31 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 64 94 72 69 66 73 70 87 56 35 25 52 28 29 5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -9 -10 -12 -4 -2 -4 -8 -11 -13 -14 -14 -11 7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 315 270 228 195 143 113 71 104 157 254 206 122 105 107 78 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.9 15.6 16.3 16.9 18.0 19.0 19.7 20.3 20.8 21.3 21.8 22.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 100.8 101.5 102.2 102.8 103.5 104.6 105.5 106.4 107.2 108.1 109.0 110.0 111.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 9 9 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 33 31 32 32 36 46 48 43 40 37 20 15 4 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 14. 19. 21. 24. 26. 29. 31. 32. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -4. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. 0. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 5. 6. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 30. 32. 31. 30. 28. 27. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.1 100.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152019 LORENA 09/17/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.80 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.20 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.55 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 51.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.85 -5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.31 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.78 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.6% 26.2% 20.2% 15.3% 10.3% 13.7% 22.6% 26.9% Logistic: 3.1% 12.4% 5.1% 2.5% 0.5% 7.1% 16.3% 5.8% Bayesian: 2.2% 27.9% 8.5% 1.5% 0.5% 1.6% 1.6% 3.6% Consensus: 6.0% 22.2% 11.2% 6.4% 3.8% 7.5% 13.5% 12.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152019 LORENA 09/17/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##