* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142019 09/17/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 38 46 53 62 64 65 65 64 58 50 42 37 34 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 38 46 53 62 64 65 65 64 58 50 42 37 34 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 36 41 45 48 49 48 45 41 36 31 28 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 12 16 18 12 16 23 26 26 23 22 22 17 6 5 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 5 2 0 -4 -2 -3 1 -1 3 2 0 0 6 2 0 SHEAR DIR 68 76 74 56 74 80 86 100 94 100 90 97 89 96 103 337 9 SST (C) 28.9 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.3 27.4 26.4 25.8 25.4 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 156 156 158 156 148 148 148 147 146 147 145 136 126 119 115 113 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 5 4 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 2 1 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 83 83 82 80 79 78 75 72 69 69 66 67 61 55 45 38 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 15 16 19 18 20 21 22 19 15 10 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 41 50 49 40 30 22 16 24 28 63 74 84 92 111 88 46 13 200 MB DIV 108 113 92 92 114 104 102 117 105 119 92 98 35 38 -1 19 -12 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -8 -11 -10 -7 -2 5 4 7 4 2 -1 -3 4 0 -2 LAND (KM) 891 852 816 811 819 828 790 791 810 838 884 928 906 817 780 800 793 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.8 13.5 14.2 14.8 15.8 16.5 16.8 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.3 18.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.5 109.1 109.6 110.3 111.0 112.4 113.3 113.9 114.4 115.0 115.8 116.6 117.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 7 4 3 2 3 4 5 6 7 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 37 46 31 22 19 13 14 14 13 12 12 11 6 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 769 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 32. 33. 33. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -9. -12. -13. -14. -13. -12. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 8. 11. 12. 12. 8. 2. -3. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 16. 24. 32. 34. 35. 35. 34. 28. 20. 12. 7. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.0 108.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142019 FOURTEEN 09/17/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.82 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.17 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.71 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 23.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.88 -5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.33 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.28 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 17.7% 14.0% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 15.5% 19.2% Logistic: 0.3% 2.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 1.4% 8.2% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Consensus: 2.5% 7.0% 5.0% 3.5% 0.0% 0.5% 7.9% 7.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142019 FOURTEEN 09/17/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##