* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/17/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 86 85 84 84 76 70 64 60 54 47 38 31 23 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 86 85 84 84 76 70 64 60 54 47 38 31 23 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 87 89 91 92 89 76 59 47 41 39 39 39 36 33 31 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 27 30 38 38 52 55 40 27 24 25 42 57 40 34 35 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 3 14 4 3 5 3 2 0 0 3 0 2 SHEAR DIR 223 206 203 208 210 211 209 214 243 236 248 252 236 267 295 357 246 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.9 27.8 27.3 27.1 27.1 24.5 21.2 17.2 20.6 19.1 18.4 16.8 15.0 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 149 151 151 136 129 127 127 103 86 75 83 78 76 73 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 124 128 130 132 119 111 107 107 89 77 70 75 71 70 68 66 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.3 -51.3 -52.3 -53.2 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -53.8 -54.5 -56.0 -57.0 -56.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.1 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 6 5 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 48 47 42 38 40 44 53 60 63 71 62 50 43 39 51 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 34 35 39 41 45 44 41 38 36 34 32 30 28 27 26 850 MB ENV VOR 27 63 79 90 90 137 115 74 45 29 57 102 158 49 -77 -92 -54 200 MB DIV 58 69 70 86 73 75 44 43 60 72 61 53 27 -24 -58 -32 -16 700-850 TADV 0 -8 -24 -19 -23 -45 -10 8 36 11 7 -36 -136 -106 54 85 30 LAND (KM) 523 545 583 649 717 906 946 833 738 636 492 574 823 1078 1314 1555 1255 LAT (DEG N) 30.6 30.9 31.2 31.6 31.9 33.2 34.9 36.8 38.8 40.8 42.3 43.3 44.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.9 72.9 71.9 70.6 69.4 66.3 63.4 61.1 58.8 56.2 52.4 47.6 43.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 13 15 14 13 14 15 17 17 16 15 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 23 26 29 38 33 17 17 11 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -11. -15. -21. -26. -32. -38. -43. -47. -51. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -10. -14. -23. -30. -32. -32. -29. -26. -27. -30. -32. -32. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 13. 13. 10. 5. 2. -2. -5. -9. -12. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -1. -1. -9. -15. -21. -25. -31. -38. -47. -54. -62. -68. -73. -77. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 30.6 73.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/17/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 40.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.12 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.13 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.47 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.65 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 549.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.36 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.86 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 12.1% 8.7% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.3% 2.6% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 4.9% 3.5% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/17/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/17/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 10( 19) 9( 26) 5( 30) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 86 85 84 84 76 70 64 60 54 47 38 31 23 17 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 83 82 82 74 68 62 58 52 45 36 29 21 15 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 80 80 72 66 60 56 50 43 34 27 19 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 75 67 61 55 51 45 38 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 58 52 46 42 36 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 86 77 71 68 63 57 51 47 41 34 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 86 85 76 70 66 60 54 50 44 37 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS