* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/17/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 68 63 60 58 57 56 54 54 53 48 44 40 41 44 45 47 V (KT) LAND 75 68 63 60 58 57 56 54 54 53 48 44 40 41 44 45 47 V (KT) LGEM 75 69 64 60 57 53 51 49 46 43 39 33 28 25 24 24 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 15 12 11 5 9 8 10 11 15 14 17 2 8 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 0 0 3 -1 -1 -2 5 9 -1 -5 3 2 4 5 SHEAR DIR 44 44 51 70 88 117 153 210 169 219 206 175 180 161 83 85 73 SST (C) 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.5 27.6 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.1 27.0 27.4 27.9 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 129 130 131 133 137 138 134 134 135 136 136 132 132 137 143 143 144 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.8 -52.6 -53.2 -52.6 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 58 59 62 60 63 62 62 61 59 60 55 54 50 52 49 48 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 20 20 19 19 18 18 18 16 13 11 10 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -9 -10 -7 3 17 19 31 14 14 10 -6 -9 7 24 45 38 200 MB DIV 7 -2 -32 -32 -16 -10 -9 19 37 18 -9 -25 -25 -14 3 -13 -14 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -2 0 0 -2 -2 -1 0 1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1489 1530 1571 1615 1658 1738 1811 1881 1922 1964 1999 2058 2160 2294 2168 2008 1857 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.2 17.1 17.0 16.8 16.7 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.4 16.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.2 124.6 125.0 125.5 125.9 126.9 128.0 129.1 129.8 130.4 130.9 131.6 132.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 5 4 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 6 7 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 4 5 6 7 5 8 12 16 15 11 11 17 16 16 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -12. -15. -17. -18. -19. -21. -21. -22. -27. -31. -35. -34. -31. -30. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 17.3 124.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/17/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.25 0.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.29 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.09 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 392.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.47 -0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.80 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 10.4% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.6% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/17/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##